• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Euro - Sharp right between 48 and 72 ... could be a signal; nothing is set in stone yet; keep abreast.
 
Try this again...
c28fc38bb28accb878a9cc67af62ad2c.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Pressure never rises above 983 on Euro entire track
Storm5 said:
Yeah that track would be problematic for SE Alabama , southern Georgia and eastern N and S Carolina


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Looking at the location, the difference on FV3 is as has been noted the speed which allows it to get farther north before the big east turn. Landfall is about the same.
 
These are max wind gust thru 84, I know the usual caveats to this map but it will be a very quick moving system. Hazel did damage all the way to Canada, yes stronger system but it was rocketing inland.
f15500b2613af1231d980a4960ee6bca.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
Quite gustier than 0Z
12Z
ecmwf_max_gust_se_90.png

0Z
ecmwf_max_gust_se_120.png
Click to expand...
That 109 mph wind gust in the panhandle of Fl, the western one, no lie is directly over the community of Wright, where my sister and her husband live. They have already started the boarding up process
 
DadOfJax said:
Fully expect the west and north trend to continue and this end up being a 65/20 special in AL...stay tuned!
Click to expand...
lol doubtful but I would say the West trend will continue based on how models handeled the ridge for Florence.. but what do I know
 
I think the track the Euro, GFS, and UK have now it’s pretty close to being correct. I’m not a meteorologist or and expert so I could be wrong but I’ve been thinking that track the past few days. I think the FV3 is just way to far west and north
 
Something to think about is for the NC area there are a lot of people who have their roof damaged from Florence and they are covered with tarps now. Winds gusting 50-70mph across these areas is going to cause a lot of issues for houses like this and may knock power back out again in some areas since there are a lot of trees and such still leaning.
 
metwannabe said:
Don't look now but several eps members going west at landfall.....

eps_michael.png
Click to expand...
Don't get me wrong, b/c west is by far the best ... but 24 hours ago it was a different story ... it's still a poker game and the player at the table and the dealer both have a face card up ...
 
Big thing to note is the EPS mean is basically identical to the FV3, GFS, Euro landfall areas. I think we have a good idea where landfall is going to be within about 50 miles or so. Panama City looks like ground zero right now.
 
snowlover91 said:
Big thing to note is the EPS mean is basically identical to the FV3, GFS, Euro landfall areas. I think we have a good idea where landfall is going to be within about 50 miles or so. Panama City looks like ground zero right now.
Click to expand...
I'd go a little west of Panama City but it's really splitting hairs...
 
And the obvious is the faster eps members are the most west, slower the most east.... no surprise there
 
FWIW: Michael hasn't quite left the passage yet. If it does leave before late night, then I'd say we're going to see more west shifting, but if it doesn't leave before late night, then I think we're probably about at what we're going to see consensus wise.
 
metwannabe said:
I'd go a little west of Panama City but it's really splitting hairs...
Click to expand...
Yeah going to be close either way, any small eyewall wobbles as it approaches and the forward speed too will make a different. The big difference in the EPS is the faster vs slower models and where the storm ends up. Hopefully that will resolve tonight with the upper air missions.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah going to be close either way, any small eyewall wobbles as it approaches and the forward speed too will make a different. The big difference in the EPS is the faster vs slower models and where the storm ends up. Hopefully that will resolve tonight with the upper air missions.
Click to expand...
That's what I said a couple post back.... Lol
 
Great point and that is a consensus I believe...
Kylo said:
EPS mean on top of Op. The weaker members are west and the stronger members are east. Michael already sub 980 and EPS doesn’t have any members sub 980 until tomorrow sometime.
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
That's what I said a couple post back.... Lol
Click to expand...

Haha just saw it. I hope the residents in Panama City and surrounding areas are prepared... a cat 3 landfall in some of these areas could bring in 10 feet or more of surge just depending on landfall area and angle of approach.. and that's assuming this is only a cat 3 at landfall.
 
Something important to note... an anti-cyclone has now built on top of Michael and will help keep shear low as long as they move in tandem. The GFS has been showing this moving in tandem with Michael keep the shear low and allowing for continued strengthening. Some incredibly powerful storms firing all around the center right now.
wg8shr.GIF
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top