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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Wind storm coming across the SE..
ecmwf_max_gust_se_138.png
 
12Z Ukmet is the fastest as well. At 120 it's off Cape Hatteras where the Euro has Michael still in Ga. Ukmet total rainfall not good for Carolina coastline.
UKMET 17 km East Coast USA Total Precipitation 120.png
 
metwannabe said:
Wind storm coming across the SE..
ecmwf_max_gust_se_138.png
Click to expand...

The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
 
GaWx said:
The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
Click to expand...
... clairvoyant, Larry ...
 
Henry2326 said:
Do you know how well Ukmet performed in rainfall with Florence?
Click to expand...
I don't know how it verified, but if I recall it was showing the significant amounts of rain similar to what the other models were showing. Main thing, like Larry mentioned, it was the furthest West compared to rest of guidance with Florence's track.
 
GaWx said:
The good news is that the Euro tends to overestimate inland wind gusts quite a bit as Mack can tell you occurred with Florence in the Charlotte to GSP corridor as well as in other storms. The bad news, however, is that this is a totally different scenario meaning we can’t assume it will be that way this time IF a track like this were to verify.
One thing to note is that over the years there has been a tendency for TCs to correct further east with time. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).
Click to expand...

Wow...that would have an error of 250 miles or more in the rest of the models that are currently west.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
I don't know how it verified, but if I recall it was showing the significant amounts of rain similar to what the other models were showing. Main thing, like Larry mentioned, it was the furthest West compared to rest of guidance with Florence's track.
Click to expand...
Tomorrow will be the first indicator. If its still sitting in the passage at noon, then all the rest will pull east. And vice-versa....
 
Recon flight was supposed to be tonight!? That will help with track forecasts tomorrow maybe??
 
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