We have tropical storm Michael now.
It's basically being funneled North between the Atlantic Ridge and that approaching digging trough, the slower it is initially the more time it allows the trough to push in and the more Eastern track, faster and stronger Ridge the more Western track.So what’s driving the N movement after landfall? The front coming down? If it’s slower, it goes more N, before being shunted East!
I really shouldn't use speak text it does not understand my Southern accent. Sorry back on topic nowIt's basically being funneled North between the Atlantic Ridge and that approaching digging trough, the slower it is initially the more time it allows the trough to push in and the more Eastern track, faster and stronger Ridge the more Western track.
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For now, I would discount that ukieThe 12Z FV3 is only a hair east of its prior run with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later than its earlier runs, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, as mentioned by others above, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.
Larry,The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east of its prior run with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later than its earlier runs, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, as mentioned by others above, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.
WTH is that over the Carolinas? The center of the death ridge?Current steering for current strength....and then when it gets a bit stronger. I would still favor a N movement into central GOM, then once the trof comes down, it will start moving NE. I do think the speed should keep up a bit because the flow is pretty fast at the moment.
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Pics anyone?Well southeast TN coming into play now. With the latest HWRF model guidance
The quicker this gets it act together the quicker it will gain latitude early on.... by the looks of things I'll be surprised if it's as far east as the Ukie and I'm going to bet the Euro shifts slightly west. I think the NHC track looks good and I doubt we see wild swings with this one