Henry2326
Member
S
Still running about 18 hours sooner than the EURO...I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
12z UKMET went further west inland I believe.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah that's further inland and NW as well than earlier.12z UKMET went further west inland I believe.
Yay just what I needed. A TS though my backyard.I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...
. Unfortunately, the FV3 probably won't budge much and it seems reasonable to say it could stay within 50 or so miles of that path.Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wow way west. Very close to the FV3 track.12z UKMET went further west inland I believe.
Henry2326
Member
And just shy of the NHC track.
B Rad pre heating his oven! Getting ready to cook that crow he’s about to eat!
Yep and if the Euro comes west any we will be getting very close to a consensus...12z UKMET went further west inland I believe.
That's the 00z run. Which was west yes
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think it was 12Z according to time stamp on the map.
Kylo
Member
UK sped up a lot from it's 0z run. It's 12 hours faster than the 0z run and 12 hours faster than the GFS. Will need to see it's ensembles to see if that was a blip run or not.
Last 3 runs of the UK all valid 12z Thursday.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a large jump north from 0Z
ForsythSnow
Moderator
HWRF is a hair west, same timing, HMON is a bit east and faster.
NCSNOW
Member
Fixing to cross the gulf stream loop current tonight
It would be nice to go into winter with a good US model.
At this point it would just be nice to go into Winter....
FV3 coming in hot! Get the bread and Milk!
The operational Euro is also running 4x daily from what I understand.
Huge strong wind field
Strengthing Hurricane and not as massive as Florence so it's wind fields should be healthy through it's track Northward should be interesting to see just how strong it gets
Looks like Ill be testing our generators at work tomorrow. If the FV3 is right, 60-70mph gusts are very possible here.
12Z Euro quite a bit faster (NNW of 0Z). So, almost definitely will come in west of the 0Z Euro.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Hey guests please join.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro is quite a bit west this run so far through 36.
pcbjr
Member
That's almost an understatement ...
Snowflowxxl
Member
Had a feeling euro would move west. FV3 has just been so steady.
Yep west it is...
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Euro seems significantly faster and is a major shift west so far on the free maps.
Well then. FV3 might actually be legit really good.
Well then. FV3 might actually be legit really good.
snowlover91
Member
Euro is bombing this out up until landfall which is worst case scenario... an intensifying hurricane, probably a major, as it makes landfall is not a good situation at all. Even worse it looks like most models are putting Panama City in the northern or northeast quad where the strongest winds will be.
snowlover91
Member
I've been extremely impressed with the FV3. It did great with Florence and appears to be leading the way with Michael. It seems it will be a much needed upgrade over the current GFS.
Kylo
Member
Pretty good match to timing/track with GFS now. Looks rough for FL/GA
Storm5
Member
Just want to say thanks to those that contribute so much during hurricane season . We have many that have been on here since the site started spending hours out of their day during hurricane season to post updated info . I don’t need to list off names you know who you are , just know your contributions are greatly appreciated .
We are also very lucky to have so many new posters contributing as well . Job well done
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We are also very lucky to have so many new posters contributing as well . Job well done
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Even South Carolina also.
Kylo
Member
The FV3 at hour 72 has it in Va, the GFS/Euro are in southern GA. Not sure I would crown the FV3 yet.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, West
Looks like he's going to Louisiana, then at 36 hours he changes his mind and wants to go to Florida instead.