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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

deltadog03 said:
It's going to come down to speed of Michael .Faster, more influence of the ridge and slower it's going to push NE quicker because of incoming trof .today's model runs will be telling for sure
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Also need to watch how far south the trough digs out west. The deeper it is the more northerly and less easterly flow aloft it will exert.
 
Honestly the 00z UK from last night has done a good job and looks very reasonable to me.
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I think the ICON is probably too far south. Maybe I'm just wishing as after it landfalls it pours more heavy rain on Eastern NC. :mad:
 
I think we probably end up with a middle ground solution again, like last time where there was a lot of differences.
 
I’m in the Port St. Joe/Cape San Blas area this week on vacation. Good chance I’ll be cutting vacation short this year.
 
12z GFS made landfall a little slower and east of the 6z, and it looks like the inland track will be south of 6z. Looks like it's going to be through central GA or just north of it.
 
GFS is significantly slower and south by hour 72. Landfall area shifted east a touch and slower. Again I think the UK idea is probably pretty close to what we see transpire here as it fits the overall synoptic setup better IMO.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Crazy the spread in the models considering how close this is to the event.
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Same thing happened with Florence. I feel like the models get more and more inconsistent from each other every year when it comes to major events like a hurricane or winter storm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Same thing happened with Florence. I feel like the models get more and more inconsistent from each other every year when it comes to major events like a hurricane or winter storm.
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The spread will not be that great after the 12z runs imo.... especially if the 6z EPS was any indication then the Euro will shift slightly west inline with where the Ukie is and the GFS just adjusted to.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Same thing happened with Florence. I feel like the models get more and more inconsistent from each other every year when it comes to major events like a hurricane or winter storm.
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The TVCN is a great tool to use.. it has had the landfall close to where the current NHC track is despite the various disagreement from the models. Usually the consensus average is a good approach and that appears to be the case here too. The TVCN was also pretty good with Florence as well except for the stall/sw movement that it didn't show until more models showed that happening.

Of note the UK was pretty bad with Florence but has done fairly well with Michael so far.
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS is about right on top of me. NASTY for sure. A bit south of the 00z run, and a smidge south of the 6z run. Honestly pretty darn close to EURO...(euro is a bit south of GFS tho)
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Yeah you might be seeing 50-60 mph sustained easily with gusts of over 70 mph. Could be a nasty midweek for ya.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This storm seems to be confusing the models I think. The GFS is already in the wrong direction early on by going NNE when the center is moving more NNW than anything and per recent satellite, more of a westward pull. I'm sure the other models will be confused and initialize in totally different locations.
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I agree, models seems to be confused with the current movement. In the end I think the track will shift west.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
12z Gfs slowing system down yet tracking further south and east. Moving toward the Euro idea.
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Gfs has it starting at a NNE movement, but the hurricane currently is moving NNW, that being said gfs is wrong with the initial movement and Michael could be more west of what models show
 
I'm going with the short range models as of now, I would think globle models aren't as good with a short range?
 
ForsythSnow said:
This storm seems to be confusing the models I think. The GFS is already in the wrong direction early on by going NNE when the center is moving more NNW than anything and per recent satellite, more of a westward pull. I'm sure the other models will be confused and initialize in totally different locations.
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Looks like it's still rolling around a bit. Now on in I think we have a super solid core and should see a nice steady movement
 
I think this is just a normal thing when TC are getting a core and have shear . Should see a more nice steady movement now .
 
If the FV3 wins...man props. Good test for it for sure.

It was one of the more eastern ones on Florence, but I still feel as if the middle ground ended up winning on the models there.
 
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