Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[deltadog03]

Looks like more new hot towers going up as we move toward DMIN

 

[accu35]

So close to Mobile

 

[deltadog03]

Yeah it’s like it brought the tropical atmosphere along with it. Typically dry air is what keeps hurricanes from making landfall as cat 4s and 5s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed .haven't seen that too much lately either

 

[accu35]

Chris you gonna update your map?

 

[deltadog03]

Chris you gonna update your map?

Not tonight. In am yes .

 

[RBR71]

FV3 once inland definitely east of it's earlier runs but remember it was a west outlier to some degree.... almost exact track as GFS

 

[accu35]

NNW motion

 

[BHS1975]

With no dry air at landfall there will be intense convection bringing a lot more of the strong wind to the surface.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RollTide18]

NNW motion

Michael looks tiny so far

 

[BHS1975]

FV3 once inland definitely east of it's earlier runs but remember it was a west outlier to some degree.... almost exact track as GFS

Yeap right over the crib this time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[StoneMtnWx]

Wow HMON landfalls around 941mb

 

[accu35]

Michael looks tiny so far

Weather channel said it will grow in size

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wonder what time they’re planning on seeding this thing?

 

[RollTide18]

Weather channel said it will grow in size

I don’t doubt it as it gets stronger, I just think back to Nate last year and how small of a storm that was.

 

[RBR71]

 

[deltadog03]

looks a little further west again over inland?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Almost completely unaffected while traveling over land..? not so sure I buy that scenario

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Ukmet shift futher south with inland tracks.

 

[RBR71]

looks a little further west again over inland?

I'm really not sure, west, east, south, slower, faster, stronger.... it's 1:00 am what the heck am I doing? Lol

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

DOWN TO 960.8mb

 

[RBR71]

Ukie going to be way off, lowest pressure it shows is 967..... oops

 

[RollTide18]

DOWN TO 960.8mb

And he has another day over water, yikes.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

PCB -> MCN -> Columbia

 

[RBR71]

 

[Arcc]

Looks like the models are zeroing in on strength, 940-945mbs and 130-145mph. No real crazy RIC on any model, just steady strengthening until landfall.

 

[accu35]

You can see the size growing

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

that dropped down 4mb in a matter of no time (highlighted in red)
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 OCT 2018 Time : 044538 UTC
Lat : 23:29:31 N Lon : 85:23:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.8mb/ 97.2kt

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I volunteer to stay up for the Euro

 

[Brent]

recon pressure hasn't dropped yet, still around 970 mb so nothing crazy yet

Also eye was not closed on the VDM, not gonna see much strengthening atm with that

COMMA SHAPED EYE. LESS THEN 50% COVERAGE OPEN FROM S-W.

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro significantly east of its 12Z run at hour 18

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro hour 30 is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run and stronger.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Very NE at 24

 

[Brent]

pressure actually up to 973 on the advisory

 

[GaWx]

Hour 36: 0Z Euro is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run. Look out Apalachicola!

Edit: Hour 42: 0Z Euro is 75 miles SE of its 12Z run

 

[Brent]

 

[accu35]

Not saying its wrong, but i don't see Michael making it that far east as Euro shows. Others models are much more west

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Euro and gfs very similar

 

[Brent]

thats pretty much the NHC track too

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro hour 54 over where GA/AL/FL meet. 12Z Euro hour 66 was 75 miles north of that position on AL/GA border not too far south of Ft. Benning. Huge shift south.

 

[GaWx]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.