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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Tarheel1 said:
Was it still one of the farther N and W runs, like it’s been the last few days?
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Right over your house...
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Correct me if I am incorrect, didn't the FV3 have very good scores inside of 72 hours with Florence.
 
Models starting to see the ridge and Michaels faster approach will lead to a further west/north trend from now until the trough starts to lean on him. Western panhandle better be on their toes.
 
Michael is on solid NNWish motion now, and moving at a good clip. He suppose to be on a N/NNW path until tomorrow after noon. If he keeps on that path than he would be due south of Pensacola before the bend. That would put LF west of the current forecast track?
 
accu35 said:
Michael is on solid NNWish motion now, and moving at a good clip. He suppose to be on a N/NNW path until tomorrow after noon. If he keeps on that path than he would be due south of Pensacola before the bend. That would put LF west of the current forecast track?
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Definitely continued NNW motion but again this is right on track I believe but anything can happen, I've got family in Ft. Walton Beach that will be watching when the turn happens. 50 miles west is the difference in 60-70 mph gust and 115 mph gust
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accu35 said:
Michael is on solid NNWish motion now, and moving at a good clip. He suppose to be on a N/NNW path until tomorrow after noon. If he keeps on that path than he would be due south of Pensacola before the bend. That would put LF west of the current forecast track?
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This current NNW motion was unanimously expected by the models/NHC, and it won’t last too much longer per the same sources.
 
metwannabe said:
Definitely continued NNW motion but again this is right on track I believe but anything can happen, I've got family in Ft. Walton Beach that will be watching when the turn happens. 50 miles west is the difference in 60-70 mph gust and 115 mph gust
recon_AF306-1014A-MICHAEL.png
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Agreed.
 
That further W idea is much more concerning for the immediate coastline of Florida. Points East of PCB are fairly undeveloped, even a national forest there, and a wildlife management area. PCB west is solid development to the West side of Ft walton. It's going to make a major difference; especially if things comes in as mid cat 3 or higher. Not gonna be pretty.
 
Looking at current visible/IR satellite loop, convection firing on S/E side trying to wrap around the eye over the past hour.
 
whatalife said:
I’ll pass. I’m on the wrong side of that track . However, I actually favor Ukie’s track for Michael.


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You are on the left side right. I am in Clarendon County close to Manning I think I’m on the worst side.
 
NWTENN said:
That further W idea is much more concerning for the immediate coastline of Florida. Points East of PCB are fairly undeveloped, even a national forest there, and a wildlife management area. PCB west is solid development to the West side of Ft walton. It's going to make a major difference; especially if things comes in as mid cat 3 or higher. Not gonna be pretty.
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Unfortunately the ridge won’t let him go east.


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Looks like it’s on more of a due north heading . But I’ve looped the images so many times I don’t know what’s what


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NWTENN said:
That further W idea is much more concerning for the immediate coastline of Florida. Points East of PCB are fairly undeveloped, even a national forest there, and a wildlife management area. PCB west is solid development to the West side of Ft walton. It's going to make a major difference; especially if things comes in as mid cat 3 or higher. Not gonna be pretty.
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Indeed.
 
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