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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Everyones favorite weenie model HWRF

Should be noted on a non intensity note last night it was hitting Alabama so it has come west a lot

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HMON shifted east into Louisiana

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Euro already at 990 mb and it's still over Cuba Marco landfalling in SE LA gonna be a much stronger run

It's still catching up...
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Bombs away and Texas bound lol

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Wow what a run!

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GaWx said:
Thanks, Brent. So, 2004 had 2 direct TS+ hits only one day apart for the same state. That would beat 2020's projected 2 days apart. However, the two storms in 2004 didn't affect the same areas and, as you said, Bonnie was weak. So, if the NHC tracks verify, 2020 would beat 2004 for the same area being affected and potentially with the weaker of the two being stronger in 2020.
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@Brent Curiosity got hold of me and I had some time. So, I looked even further back to add to what Brent was able to find about 2004 and found two other years that are worth a mention:

1. 1923

1598164606826.png

In mid October just 43 hours apart apart, there was a cat 1 H (80 mph) landfall from storm #6 ( a storm that formed in the E Pacific, a rarity in itself) in C LA followed by a TS landfall from storm #8 in MS only ~120 miles east. E LA was significantly affected by both.

On the map below, you can see the first storm hitting LA while the 2nd storm was forming over the Bay of Campeche:

1598163836556.png

I found this map here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Atlantic_hurricane_season
From there:
"A storm which formed in the eastern Pacific basin around October 12 struck Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane on October 16. The system caused some damage to coastal areas, especially between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Pensacola, Florida. Just two days later, a tropical storm also struck Louisiana; it caused less damage, though four people died after a ship capsized in Perdido Bay."


2. 1985
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In late September just under 3 days apart, there was a 40 mph TS, Henri, that crossed far E Long Island, NY, followed by cat 1 H (85 mph) Gloria over western Long Island ~75 miles to Henri's west. Far E L.I. and into E New England had effects from both.
 

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GaWx said:
@Brent Curiosity got hold of me and I had some time. So, I looked even further back to add to what Brent was able to find about 2004 and found two other years that are worth a mention:

1. 1923

View attachment 47016

In mid October just 43 hours apart apart, there was a cat 1 H (80 mph) landfall from storm #6 ( a storm that formed in the E Pacific, a rarity in itself) in C LA followed by a TS landfall from storm #8 in MS only ~120 miles east. E LA was significantly affected by both.

On the map below, you can see the first storm hitting LA while the 2nd storm was forming over the Bay of Campeche:

View attachment 47015

I found this map here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Atlantic_hurricane_season



2. 1985
View attachment 47018


In late September just under 3 days apart, there was a 40 mph TS, Henri, that crossed far E Long Island, NY, followed by cat 1 H (85 mph) Gloria over E L.. ~75 miles to Henri's west. Far E L.I. and into E New England had effects from both.
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Yeah I had meant to look at some other examples but got distracted thanks :p

What a way to end the 0z runs though let's remember the Euro had an open wave in the Gulf 2 days ago...
 
The latest 00z Euro would be a proper solution based on the past 15 years of the mysterious and tenacious block Phenomenon of hurricanes and tropical storms lol:


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TS Block.jpg
 
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
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Yeah... that sounds like something that would happen in 2020...
 
EURO looks bad for NC...993mb over Tennessee. Flooding and tornado potential. Plus due East over the entire state could bring additional flooding.
 
Looks like the models continue to be all over the place with the track.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
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I need to see this member that hits Memphis twice. Lol
 
The angle Laura could take into NO,SE LA area will not bode well if its cat 3+. Espeacilly on the heels of Marco rains. Something to consider.
 
0z euro would be bad for midsouth east Arkansas and west Tennessee... still sub 1000 mb pressure sitting over ne Arkansas moving towards nw Tennessee would not only result in heavy tropical rains but severe weather with tornadoes in the stronger bands especially on the east side of center circulation... not to mention strong winds also.
 
Chazwin said:
The way the models are wanting to hook this back to the East so quickly, it makes you wonder if that track could set up severe weather as it moves East across Tennessee and into the Carolinas and Virginia.
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Look like quite a bit of the EPS members and a few GEFS members take it right through Tennessee and into the Carolinas.
 
So far this storm isn’t going as planned from yesterday. It’s odd how well the storm outflow is this close to land. Haiti and DR are getting hammered right now.

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Looks like Hispaniola definitely inhibited the hurricane hunters this morning. Looks like they were only able to do 1 pass on the south side of Hispaniola before leaving.
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06z GFS and 06z HWRF have the same land interaction and both come off the Island at the same pressure of 1003. Both show coming off island on north corner.
Landfall for both is almost at the Tx/LA border.
GFS 953
HWRF 947

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Brent said:
Florida 2004 Bonnie and Charley a day apart Bonnie was very weak though

That was the same year Florida had 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Frances and Jeanne hit the same spot 3 weeks apart
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View attachment 47003
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Right where I grew up. Lost part of the roof to my childhood home, then lost the tarp covering the roof.. lol

I will never forget the horror on my mom's face when we saw that Jeanne was going to loop around.

Honestly, it didn't add too much more Damage, from my perspective. What was done was already done by Fances.
 
06z Icon comes off the island at 1002, but only makes it to 966....its a little bit faster getting there, so less time over water......landfall same as GFS. Same as GFS and HWRF coming off Island on north corner.

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Henry2326 said:
Did it say again that it was a conservative estimate or did they drop that language?
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Here is what they said about intensity
advisory.

Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to
Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba
during the the next 36 hours, with the strongest wind likely
remaining over water in the northeast quadrant where the pressure
gradient will be the tightest between the cyclone and the Bermuda
High. By 48 hours and continuing until landfall, Laura is forecast
to remain in a low shear and very favorable upper-level outflow
environment while passing of extremely warm SSTs near 31C. This
should allow for significant strengthening to occur once the cyclone
regains a decent inner core after exiting Cuba. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the intensity forecasts by the GFS
and ECMWF global models and the corrected consensus models HCCA and
FSSE.
Click to expand...
 
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