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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Yeah Laura looks like a decent TS right now...apparently recon is back and so far the lowest pressure is 1003 looks like.
 
I think if marco doesnt become a cane and weakens to almost nothing then laura could go quite a bit west
 
JB made a good point as far as the analogs of Isador and Lili. I went in with ERA-5 and found that Lili could be a good analog to Laura due to the environment and track. However, Isador, unlike Marco encountered a very nice upper-level environment.
 
Ollie Williams said:
JB made a good point as far as the analogs of Isador and Lili. I went in with ERA-5 and found that Lili could be a good analog to Laura due to the environment and track. However, Isador, unlike Marco encountered a very nice upper-level environment.
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Ah yes Lili, the most awesome example of a hurricane being decapitated in (my)history.

Edit: bug meeting windshield may be an even better analog. One of those fat ones that splatter.
 
I do think we get to cat 2. I’m hesitant to say it gets stronger then that. Because of the elements from Marco. Already worked water May not be as warm


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Brent said:
90 mph inland at 8pm Wednesday on the NHC forecast
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Hmm, an eventual jump through Hispaniola and through Cuba if we go right down the middle. Assuming that happens, 90 mph is actually bullish here probably.

Edit: And if it does stay south, we will see a stronger hurricane.
 
Jessy89 said:
I do think we get to cat 2. I’m hesitant to say it gets stronger then that. Because of the elements from Marco. Already worked water May not be as warm


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Storms virtually always cool the water at least some. But the question is how much? If only a little, the waters will still be quite warm. I'm betting the cooling from Marco will be only a small amount.
 
So, the NHC is projecting for LA a TS hit followed by a H hit just 2 days later. When was the last time the same state got hit by a TS+ 2 days apart?
Anyone know?
 
GaWx said:
So, the NHC is projecting for LA a TS hit followed by a H hit just 2 days later. When was the last time the same state got hit by a TS+ 2 days apart?
Anyone know?
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Florida 2004 Bonnie and Charley a day apart Bonnie was very weak though

That was the same year Florida had 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Frances and Jeanne hit the same spot 3 weeks apart
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2004-Hurricane-Season-Tracks-and-Facts-2.png
 
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Brent said:
Florida 2004 Bonnie and Charley a day apart Bonnie was very weak though

That was the same year Florida had 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Frances and Jeanne hit the same spot 3 weeks apart
View attachment 47004
View attachment 47003
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Thanks, Brent. So, 2004 had 2 direct TS+ hits only one day apart for the same state. That would beat 2020's projected 2 days apart. However, the two storms in 2004 didn't affect the same areas and, as you said, Bonnie was weak. So, if the NHC tracks verify, 2020 would beat 2004 for the same area being affected and potentially with the weaker of the two being stronger in 2020.
 
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GaWx said:
Storms virtually always cool the water at least some. But the question is how much? If only a little, the waters will still be quite warm. I'm betting the cooling from Marco will be only a small amount.
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The overall shallowness of the gulf, in comparison to the Atlantic, should limit upwelling of very cool water. The whole column should not have “cooler” water to draw from , due to less variance in the column
 
Big shift southwest on the GFS run.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_15.png
 
EDIT: CMC site I use still had 12z run. 0z had 992 MB landfalling near Slidell LA.
 
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