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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

You ever notice when hurricane approache the east coast, they almost always recurve in the shape of the coastline, but when the hit the Gulf coast, they go nnw or north for a greater distance?
 
Rain Cold said:
You ever notice when hurricane approache the east coast, they almost always recurve in the shape of the coastline, but when the hit the Gulf coast, they go nnw or north for a greater distance?
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There's a lot of research out there on tropical systems being influenced by mountain peaks (Appalachian Mtns included) with respect to forecast track. Similar to how Hispaniola influences track/strength too.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
There's a lot of research out there on tropical systems being influenced by mountain peaks (Appalachian Mtns included) with respect to forecast track. Similar to how Hispaniola influences track/strength too.
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I have to ask but ugh the Appalachian mountains are oh I don’t know 300 miles perhaps at closest approach to any ocean . Not only that but when storms reach the Appalachians they are decaying and transitioning to mid latitude systems . So how do the Appalachians influence the track of a hurricane ?
 
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Lickwx said:
I have to ask but ugh the Appalachian mountains are oh I don’t know 300 miles perhaps at closest approach to any ocean . Not only that but when storms reach the Appalachians they are decaying and transitioning to mid latitude systems . So how do the Appalachians influence the track of a hurricane ?
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Like Hugo, you just don't see storms go due west across the east coast into deep America where mountains exist. There is still plenty of research to be done on why other than saying oh yea cold front saved the day again. It's obvious the Appalachians influence precip development but forecast track is more complex.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Like Hugo, you just don't see storms go due west across the east coast into deep America where mountains exist. There is still plenty of research to be done on why other than saying oh yea cold front saved the day again. It's obvious the Appalachians influence precip development but forecast track is more complex.
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Sure the mountains would shear part a system attempting to go due west after land falling but hurricanes don’t actively sense the presence of a mountain range and move away from it . Also, you are aware the Appalachians are not just in the southern us ? They extend in a se to ne direction . Plenty of hurricanes have crossed the Appalachians . Hazel for example ended up in Toronto which means it crossed lots of very mountainous terrain in places like West Virginia , Virginia , and Pennsylvania .
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Like Hugo, you just don't see storms go due west across the east coast into deep America where mountains exist. There is still plenty of research to be done on why other than saying oh yea cold front saved the day again. It's obvious the Appalachians influence precip development but forecast track is more complex.
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I think you’re probably on to something there. Of the Hurricanes that I’ve read up on that went went well inland off the Atlantic into Georgia and the Carolinas, I’ve not found any that the center ends up crossing the Appalachians. Hugo and Gracie were probably the closest, but both of those still turned.
 
Chazwin said:
I think you’re probably on to something there. Of the Hurricanes that I’ve read up on that went went well inland off the Atlantic into Georgia and the Carolinas, I’ve not found any that the center ends up crossing the Appalachians. Hugo and Gracie were probably the closest, but both of those still turned.
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I don’t think that has to do with the mountains though as much as it has to do with the Coriolis force that makes hurricanes recurve so sharply ne at this latitude . It would take a very strong , very westward ridge to push something that far west which I guess just doesn’t happen . Otherwise how could a hurricane sense the presence of mountains and just recurve , that doesn’t make sense to me at all as an explanation .
 
Lickwx said:
I don’t think that has to do with the mountains though as much as it has to do with the Coriolis force that makes hurricanes recurve so sharply ne at this latitude . It would take a very strong , very westward ridge to push something that far west which I guess just doesn’t happen . Otherwise how could a hurricane sense the presence of mountains and just recurve , that doesn’t make sense to me at all as an explanation .
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I’m sure there are other factors at work. However I’ve noticed a number of storms over the years that pass very close to Hispaniola and Cuba that almost appear to take wobbles away from those mountains. It almost seems like you have to have a strong enough ridge to force a storm south over those mountains for it to actually cross it from the north... like we saw with Irma. Again, I’m sure other factors are play as well and I’m sure there’s someone a lot smarter than me on the subject that knows more.
 
Lickwx said:
I don’t think that has to do with the mountains though as much as it has to do with the Coriolis force that makes hurricanes recurve so sharply ne at this latitude . It would take a very strong , very westward ridge to push something that far west which I guess just doesn’t happen . Otherwise how could a hurricane sense the presence of mountains and just recurve , that doesn’t make sense to me at all as an explanation .
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Ivan rounded Jamaica as it approached the island if I remember correctly.
 
Ethan80963 said:
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SAL along with two different forms of shear were suggested by Levi last night and may be the reason for no intensification in that area per model consensus. So, Levi expected little or no intensification the next few days and the models may be showing us they knew what they were doing. However, he was also concerned about the possibility of it getting stronger once south of the Bahamas if it isn't going over or near Hispaniola.

By the way, I wasn't aware that @Shaggy made an appearance per the post I'm responding to.
 
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GaWx said:
SAL along with two different forms of shear were suggested by Levi last night and may be the reason for no intensification in that area per model consensus. So, Levi expected little or no intensification the next few days and the models may be showing us they knew what they were doing. However, he was also concerned about the possibility of it getting stronger once south of the Bahamas if it isn't going over or near Hispaniola.

By the way, I wasn't aware that @Shaggy made an appearance per the post I'm responding to.
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I'm famous!!!! And I love scooby snacks!!!
 
Good news is that the Happy Hour GFS is further south early in the run leading to lots of land interaction with the Greater Antilles and ends up much weaker in the GOM than the last 3 runs at least
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Like Hugo, you just don't see storms go due west across the east coast into deep America where mountains exist. There is still plenty of research to be done on why other than saying oh yea cold front saved the day again. It's obvious the Appalachians influence precip development but forecast track is more complex.
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The pattern that would be required to drive a storm due west across the mountains would be so highly anomalous. You would have to have a broad west to east oriented ridge that is flat and you would have to have it blocked in the western flank. Maybe you could get that in lare June/July/early August but by the time hurricane season is peaking westerlies are increasing and starting their southward progression. This leaves the general pattern across the US too fluid to drive a system from Wilmington to Nashville. Not to mention the general seasonal driver is the bermuda/azores/WAR and they typically are losing their influence as you get to the coast.
 
SD said:
The pattern that would be required to drive a storm due west across the mountains would be so highly anomalous. You would have to have a broad west to east oriented ridge that is flat and you would have to have it blocked in the western flank.
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I think Birdman is highly anomalous.


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