BHS1975
Member
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think others have also said that if the system is unorganized, it doesn't get as affected by land interaction.
Henry2326
Member
To your point, hope it doesn't pull a Michael on us with only 24 hours to evacuate...
Tornadocane
Member
Dr. Postel has been braking it down real well on the Weather Channel. Only thing standing in its way is possible land interaction.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah but like with Iseias a core needs to develop and a weak system dragging a weak core over Florida even if flat SHOULD take it more time to reorganize its core before it can rapidly develop? Will it have enough time I guess is the question.
Henry2326
Member
Crazy Uncle is on board....12z
JaxHurricane12
Member
I think track is somewhat consistent with the ICON. GFS is good for track not necessarily strength, that's why we have the Hurricane models.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Assuming we do go into the Gulf with the conditions talked about, could end up being somewhat like Hanna in which future Laura/Marco just thankfully runs out of water as it's intensifying, perhaps.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah depends on how organized it is when approaching FL. Hopefully it will miss to the east and head OTS.
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JaxHurricane12
Member
very similar to ICON and GFS as far as track goes. Notice other system in GOM basically dissipates though.
Henry2326
Member
ICON is slower than GFS and CMC by about 9 hours.....might be why it's more intense.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah obviously if its a stronger well developed system as it crosses Florida then the faster it can strengthen over the GOM.
Theres all sorts of unknowns as well with what part of Florida it may cross which changes amount of time over water.
I'm doubting an OTS track on this one.
As [mention]Avalanche [/mention] , [mention]SD [/mention] mentioned earlier, This time of year and especially the next couple of days. The zonal flow of the US is exceptionally strong. Bringing cooler dryer air to most of the Ohio River valley and north east. That being said this system will most likely race off to the northeast at a fast pace. Once Inland a couple of hundred miles. (Pending a gulf coast landfall.)
-D
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-D
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I am a little concerned that this could get stuck to be honest. Really a matter of do we get a more amplified ridge across the north central US into the lakes.
Georgia would get hammered in that track even northern Georgia would have high winds. Looks like smaller version of hurricane opal. That knocked power out for weeks in northern Georgia and lots of down trees!!
WXinCanton
Member
12z UKMET crawls it straight up AL
126
and here is 144
126
and here is 144
WXinCanton
Member
This is looking more and more like someone on this board will possibly get record flooding.
The possible track of this thing reminds me of a storm from September 2004, was it Ivan?
Edit: Ivan tracked south of the islands, whereas this one looks to track north.
E
Edit: Ivan tracked south of the islands, whereas this one looks to track north.
E