• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Jessy89 said:
Right now there’s equal chances of it going into the gulf. As there is going for the east coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I disagree, with that ridge to the north, and trough to bring it north. it's going to be extremely difficult to go up the EC. Earlier on, that was an option due to a stronger system earlier, taking it north, and the trough being a little more prominent, but there is virtually no support for that solution.
 
Shaggy said:
I'd argue better for the GOM as modeled. I'd be really paying attention if I was a gulf coaster.

As an east coaster I dont take my eye off the ball either but with that ridge bridging to its north........

I like the Irma comparison. A northward turn 200 miles sooner puts it east of Florida or later well into the GOM.
Click to expand...

This has the potential of being strong like Irma to. We all know the wind Irma brought well inland into Georgia. Will this be similar wind wise we shall see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Currently within the next 48 hours we have two factors. There is an upper level low pressure I have been monitoring around Columbia/Venezuela that pushes into the Caribbean (it’s life is short lived) however it may be strong enough to force zonal flow to 13D and avoid land. There is a WAR position over Cuba and moves into the SWR area the tug of war will be a factor in development. With dryer air center over the western Atlantic. Development could remain at a minimal. SST are extremely warm and I don’t see anything that will erode the AR. The nearest buoy has been offline for more the 8 hours. There is limited observations to go on right now other then satellite data.
ca6e67a15d008bac3b31f67d18467c9f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
As this rounds the HP, are there any fronts coming in from the plains that can pull this into the interior SE?
 
smast16 said:
I think the biggest difference between this and other systems, There is no trough digging in to break down the ridge.

View attachment 46791
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that a full fledged trough is not needed to induce recurving. All that’s needed is a subtle weakness based on my many years of following these. Storms “like”
to go more poleward. Many times these subtle weaknesses aren’t clearcut in the modeling. If a storm “senses” just a little weakness, it can very easily recurve more quickly than modeled, especially models like left biased models like the UKMET (and ICON I think) and even the Euro to some extent. This is especially the case with stronger storms approaching the SE coast.
Again, I’m only talking tendencies.
 
Last edited:
Avalanche said:
As this rounds the HP, are there any fronts coming in from the plains that can pull this into the interior SE?
Click to expand...
for track, the other storm in the Caribbean is going to influence it greatly in terms of direction and speed. Until eventually it weakens over land and lifts north/East with a cold front. I don’t really see a door open for a deep inland path like say Tennessee or anything
 
ICON has a strengthening Category 1 hurricane hitting the Florida Panhandle.
 
Doesn't get too crazy on the GFS but the GFS also has 14 as more dominant which I would presume shear from 14 would hinder 13.

Who's on first ?
 
Wow, we could see a hurricane and a tropical storm hit the Gulf Coast within 24 hours of each other. Has that ever happened before?
 
Shaggy said:
Seems odd that its weak and disorganized as it hits Florida but still explodes while briefly over the gom. I would think that much land interaction would keep it in check?
Click to expand...

Florida is pretty flat with little in the way of friction from vegetation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top