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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Ukmet from last night.

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GaWx said:
6Z Euro is still very weak with it being the strongest at initialization, similar to the 0Z. Let’s see whether or not it has the right idea of it not strengthening further before reaching FL longitude.
Any opinions? I’m now reading that nearby SAL MAY prevent it from strengthening much the next few days. Also, what if 97L were to get stronger? Would that hold TD 13 back?
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Always make me think when the Euro is so far apart from everything else. That said it wasn't very good on the last couple storms IMO
 
WXinCanton said:
Always make me think when the Euro is so far apart from everything else. That said it wasn't very good on the last couple storms IMO
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Personally I'd say if we see intensification the next 24 hours and no change from the Euro, it's out to lunch. It has a habit of underdoing storms initially it seems. Just as I wouldn't buy the HWRF unless we see extreme intensification when it shows it since it struggles with weak storms most of the time, often overdoing it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Personally I'd say if we see intensification the next 24 hours and no change from the Euro, it's out to lunch. It has a habit of underdoing storms initially it seems. Just as I wouldn't buy the HWRF unless we see extreme intensification when it shows it since it struggles with weak storms most of the time, often overdoing it.
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Leaves us with the Icon.....performing well in my opinion. Knock the intensity back a notch in the early runs....
 
WXinCanton said:
Always make me think when the Euro is so far apart from everything else. That said it wasn't very good on the last couple storms IMO
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At this point, I feel the odds are high that the Euro idea of no further strengthening the next few days is wrong, especially since it didn’t have it become a TD in recent runs. But it does make things more interesting as far as possibilities are concerned.
 
I think (as someone pointed out to me yesterday) the WAR is modeled too strong. I don't think this hits the Florida Strait and goes into the GOM. I think this is an East coast storm.

Edit: If I'm wrong please feel free to flame me. LOL
 
GFS PARA still on "follow the leader" into LA....by the way, Icon went that direction overnight too.
 
tramadoc said:
I think (as someone pointed out to me yesterday) the WAR is modeled too strong. I don't think this hits the Florida Strait and goes into the GOM. I think this is an East coast storm.

Edit: If I'm wrong please feel free to flame me. LOL
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There’s no right or wrong in advance since nobody knows. Only educated guesses can be made. Not only what you mentioned, which is a realistic possibility based on modeled steering, but another realistic possibility is the one Shaggy mentioned, a TC that gets strong early and then recurves safely offshore the SE US. This has been shown by a nontrivial number of GFS ensemble members in recent runs. Per my memory over the years, there have been more TCs that ended up to the right of consensus than to the left and that thus ended up recurving earlier/more sharply. Dorian is just one great example. Remember those early runs of models (actually closer in than we are now) like especially the Euro and UKMET (and Icon too I think) that had Dorian plow right into FL and in some cases out into the Gulf?

Just like the common NW trend of winter storm tracks, I believe there is a rather common SE trend for TCs. My 20+ years of following models tells me that once a TC has a well defined center and assuming it doesn’t weaken due to shear, the chances of a SE trend of the track from the SW portion of the Atlantic basin are higher as regards the SE US than the chances of a NW trend. I distinctly recall many other TCs that were modeled to plow right into the SE US that ended up recurving more sharply.

There are, of course, exceptions like Katrina and Irma. But I’m talking about tendencies.

Anyone else with many years of following these have an opinion?
 
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GaWx said:
There’s no right or wrong in advance since nobody knows. Only educated guesses can be made. Not only what you mentioned, which is a realistic possibility based on modeled steering, but another realistic possibility is the one Shaggy mentioned, a TC that gets strong early and then recurves safely offshore the SE US. This has been shown by a nontrivial number of GFS ensemble members in recent runs. Per my memory over the years, there have been more TCs that ended up to the right of consensus than to the left and that thus ended up recurving earlier/more sharply. Dorian is just one great example. Remember those early runs of models (actually several days closer in than we are now) like especially the Euro and UKMET that had Dorian plow right into FL and in some cases out into the Gulf?

Just like the common NW trend of winter storm tracks, I believe there is a rather common SE trend for TCs. My 20+ years of following models tells me that once a TC has a well defined center and assuming it doesn’t weaken due to shear, the chances of a SE trend of the track from the SW portion of the Atlantic basin are higher as regards the SE US than the chances of a NW trend. I distinctly recall many other TCs that were modeled to plow right into the SE US that ended up recurving more sharply.

There are, of course, exceptions like Katrina and Irma. But I’m talking about tendencies.

Anyone else with many years of following these have an opinion?
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This is kinda why I want a stronger storm earlier, don’t want it getting caught in the gulf where possibly the upper level environment could become very favorable for intensification
 
I saw someone compare this system to a bowling ball. If it can make it past its current stage, which it's trending towards, then we can really see this thing bomb out. However, if it dies before reaching the Gulf, like the Euro, this thing will be a non-event.
 
GaWx said:
There’s no right or wrong in advance since nobody knows. Only educated guesses can be made. Not only what you mentioned, which is a realistic possibility based on modeled steering, but another realistic possibility is the one Shaggy mentioned, a TC that gets strong early and then recurves safely offshore the SE US. This has been shown by a nontrivial number of GFS ensemble members in recent runs. Per my memory over the years, there have been more TCs that ended up to the right of consensus than to the left and that thus ended up recurving earlier/more sharply. Dorian is just one great example. Remember those early runs of models (actually closer in than we are now) like especially the Euro and UKMET (and Icon too I think) that had Dorian plow right into FL and in some cases out into the Gulf?

Just like the common NW trend of winter storm tracks, I believe there is a rather common SE trend for TCs. My 20+ years of following models tells me that once a TC has a well defined center and assuming it doesn’t weaken due to shear, the chances of a SE trend of the track from the SW portion of the Atlantic basin are higher as regards the SE US than the chances of a NW trend. I distinctly recall many other TCs that were modeled to plow right into the SE US that ended up recurving more sharply.

There are, of course, exceptions like Katrina and Irma. But I’m talking about tendencies.

Anyone else with many years of following these have an opinion?
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The post like these and the contributions of so many others is why this board sets the bar
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is kinda why I want a stronger storm earlier, don’t want it getting caught in the gulf where possibly the upper level environment could become very favorable for intensification
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Yeah no kidding. One thing that concerns me about the gefs is that while some solutions that have a stronger storm sooner recurve the gfs also has a tendency to weaken the ridge too fast. So are we really seeing a stronger storm recurve or the gfs bias rearing its head.

Florida especially for now needs to stay heightened!
 
Right now there’s equal chances of it going into the gulf. As there is going for the east coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
There’s no right or wrong in advance since nobody knows. Only educated guesses can be made. Not only what you mentioned, which is a realistic possibility based on modeled steering, but another realistic possibility is the one Shaggy mentioned, a TC that gets strong early and then recurves safely offshore the SE US. This has been shown by a nontrivial number of GFS ensemble members in recent runs. Per my memory over the years, there have been more TCs that ended up to the right of consensus than to the left and that thus ended up recurving earlier/more sharply. Dorian is just one great example. Remember those early runs of models (actually closer in than we are now) like especially the Euro and UKMET (and Icon too I think) that had Dorian plow right into FL and in some cases out into the Gulf?

Just like the common NW trend of winter storm tracks, I believe there is a rather common SE trend for TCs. My 20+ years of following models tells me that once a TC has a well defined center and assuming it doesn’t weaken due to shear, the chances of a SE trend of the track from the SW portion of the Atlantic basin are higher as regards the SE US than the chances of a NW trend. I distinctly recall many other TCs that were modeled to plow right into the SE US that ended up recurving more sharply.

There are, of course, exceptions like Katrina and Irma. But I’m talking about tendencies.

Anyone else with many years of following these have an opinion?
Click to expand...

I think the biggest difference between this and other systems, There is no trough digging in to break down the ridge.

1597934202339.png
 
Jessy89 said:
Right now there’s equal chances of it going into the gulf. As there is going for the east coast.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I'd argue better for the GOM as modeled. I'd be really paying attention if I was a gulf coaster.

As an east coaster I dont take my eye off the ball either but with that ridge bridging to its north........

I like the Irma comparison. A northward turn 200 miles sooner puts it east of Florida or later well into the GOM.
 
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