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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Definitely bears watching but its moving at a pretty rapid pace. If it intensifies quickly we will have big problems. Otherwise I only expect a minimal hurricane unless it gets more than a day in the gulf.
 
The 00z GFS is on board:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png
 
HWRF now bypassing Florida entirely and Gulf bound modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie

Oh and it's interesting to see it doesn't even go sub 1000 mb til Sunday so it barely has any strengthening the next 3 days

hwrf_satIR_13L_22.png
 
This time around, may I suggest that everyone keep their "doom, we all will die to this monster" type of hopes simmered down?

It will muddy up the thread and nobody wants that. Since this has a chance to be a major threat, from the looks of things, relevant data and not "what-if" scenarios in this thread will be more valuable for our readers.
 
Shaggy said:
If my understanding is correct the off the east coast members seemed stronger earlier and allowed for a near miss recurve. Let's hope that scenario stays on the table.
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The worrying idea is the Euro, while "not the standard king" anymore is wanting to keep it weaker still, which makes me wonder if the thing may really get going once it's reached an inevitable bad place to do it. I can see some hinting at that idea across various modeling.

If my understanding is correct, stronger cyclones tend to take less steering influence versus weaker ones (for a while) that just meander around a bit.
 
Shawn said:
The worrying idea is the Euro, while "not the standard king" anymore is wanting to keep it weaker still, which makes me wonder if the thing may really get going once it's reached an inevitable bad place to do it. I can see some hinting at that idea across various modeling.
Click to expand...

Yeah. It's been odd this year how the models struggle to develop every system keeping it 1000+ mb for days it seems. Of course they were right with Gonzalo and Josephine.
 
6Z Euro is still very weak with it being the strongest at initialization, similar to the 0Z. Let’s see whether or not it has the right idea of it not strengthening further before reaching FL longitude.
Any opinions? I’m now reading that nearby SAL MAY prevent it from strengthening much the next few days. Also, what if 97L were to get stronger? Would that hold TD 13 back?
 
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