• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Tornadocane said:
98L is organizing at a pretty good rate. Energy looks to be bundling around the alleged COC. Visible seems to indicate this process beautifully, and I can see it rotating clouds from that convection to its South and Southeast. Could be a depression within the next 12 hours.
Click to expand...

As visible satellite goes dark, organization has become evident on IR. Looks like the vorticities at each level are coming closer in alignment. Expect a burst of convection over the broad COC triggering NHC to designate this a tropical depression by11PM.
 
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
Click to expand...
Do you think that if we see a stronger solution develop, then this will turn into a SE coastal threat as opposed to a Gulf threat or does the ridge look strong enough to steer it on into the Gulf either way?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
Click to expand...
Omg.....mark the calendar....just kidding ya. Lol
 
Correct me if I'm mistaken.. Most of the stronger solutions seem to keep the storm on a mostly Western track instead of a recurve, and the trend today has been to move the time frame for the storms arrival forward about 12-18 hours. My assumption is that the Ridge is stronger, the storm is steered faster, and the ridge won't have enough time to breakdown before the storm approaches Florida.

This looks to be a completely different situation than the I storm. The ridge isn't likely to breakdown.
 
98L will be an East coast storm and not a GOM. Just my feeling. I think this thing corrects further north before the Leeward Islands, passes nor5h of Hispâniola and sets it's eyes on the Bahamas.
 
Looks like we will have either a PTC or TD 13 in about a half hour

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top