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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

SD said:
Yeah there is definitely a TUTT above the ridge in the central Atlantic but that is weakening and lifting Im more interested in why it doesn't get going as it approaches the bahamas
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yeah I don’t got access to the good maps nomore either tbh so I’m kinda lost to, I needa get wx bell back, prefer it over wxmodels tbh, but who here has a 250mb map when it’s approaching the Bahamas on the euro
 
I'm betting on no upgrade to a TD today and waiting til tomorrow to see. Models are too bearish overall and it is still not clear it is a TD yet from all I've seen/read.. Satellites can be deceptive and the circulation appears to be broad.

Edit: Now if I knew that Stacey Stewart were doing the evening shift, I might have a different bet.
 
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GaWx said:
I'm betting on no upgrade to a TD today and waiting til tomorrow to see. Models are too bearish overall and it is still not clear it is a TD yet from all I've seen/read.. Satellites can be deceptive and the circulation appears to be broad.

Edit: Now if I knew that Stacey Stewart were doing the evening shift, I might have a different bet.
Click to expand...

They usually are conservative anyway when it's this far east so I'm not surprised they are holding off

But I wouldn't be surprised either if it comes at 11pm
 
Icon still looks like a threat to Florida and the gfs is about the same. Icon doesnt get this under 1005mb till the Bahamas.
 
Shaggy said:
Icon still looks like a threat to Florida and the gfs is about the same. Icon doesnt get this under 1005mb till the Bahamas.
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Compared to 4 runs ago, Icon 18z track is the same until the end.....its just a tic north.....also 4 runs ago it was 971 compared to 18z st 989 at the end on the 18z run.
 
Time to throw out the globals lol

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Re
 
Brent said:
Time to throw out the globals lol

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Re
Click to expand...
I'm proud of them......lol
 
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