Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET 144:

 

[Brent]

CMC also with two storms in the Gulf



Then 98 goes into New Orleans

 

[GaWx]

Believe it or not, the 0Z Euro is even a tad weaker than the already very weak 12Z through hour 48. So, the run once again looks to not develop it until at least the longitude of FL, if at all.

Edit: It never developed it. And the EPS is once again very quiet at least until it gets near the longitude of FL. This is a fascinating Invest to say the least!

 

[Brent]

Believe it or not, the 0Z Euro is even a tad weaker than the already very weak 12Z through hour 48. So, the run once again looks to not develop it until at least the longitude of FL, if at all.

At what point do we throw out the Euro if we get an advisory in the next day or two at this rate? Lol

 

[$alt]

It was my understanding that the ICON model used Euro's initialization data, and if that's the case, it's interesting to see them so far apart.

 

[Brent]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

 

[Ethan80963]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

View attachment 46692

Based off that sat imagine it looks like it’s made some strides towards being better organized. Better banding, the eastern portion has dissipated, and better cold tops poping.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

View attachment 46692

YOU GOT LOTS OF CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE OFF ON THE SOUTH AND NE QUADS OF THIS WAVE, IT MAY BE TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Ethan80963]

6z GEFS

 

[SD]

Satellite looks better than I expected this morning waiting to get some good visible images.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[tramadoc]

12z Navgem....interesting

View attachment 46665

Could that feature over AL/MS kick it out to sea?

 

[tramadoc]

That thing looks like it’s trying to develop into a monster sized storm.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looks like a sharp north/east turn no matter how far west it gets...Almost October like...which helps here keep all the action down East NC and south into Florida

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Shaggy]

So 5pm or 11pm on advisories? Looking better on satellite.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Definitely looks like it's getting there on visible but there's still work to be done imo.

 

[GaWx]

Some good news on the 12Z Icon as it at hour 81 continues the weaker trend of the last 8 runs with 98L at 1004 mb vs 991 mb 8 runs ago.

Aside: it also has 97L stronger than recent runs.

Edit: this weaker trend of 98L/stronger trend of 97L continues through hour 120.

 

[GaWx]

However, 12Z Icon still gets it way down to 960 mb at hour 174 and 954 mb at the end (hour 180)(hopefully overdone considering the model’s trends but we’ll see)