Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[Brent]

NHC still very bullish on developing soon

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Henry2326]

NHC still very bullish on developing soon

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

That doesn't happen very often....so probably a good bet...

 

[Henry2326]

Eyeballing this....looks like it's on Icon path.....geez....

 

[BHS1975]

Seems like ots tracks are way less common now which is troubling considering how many storms end up forming.


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[lexxnchloe]

Eyeballing this....looks like it's on Icon path.....geez....

View attachment 46670

No offence to my florida friends but i hope that doesnt turn up here.

 

[Brent]

The HWRF is all kinds of yikes fortunately it's usually too hyped with invests but it definitely can't be ruled out

 

[BHS1975]

The HWRF is all kinds of yikes fortunately it's usually too hyped with invests but it definitely can't be ruled out

View attachment 46671

Yeah it nailed Dorian


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[Brent]

Yeah it nailed Dorian


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Should also note I remember it showing Isaias weakening approaching Florida(which is exactly what happened) so it shouldn't be written off

 

[Henry2326]

Should also note I remember it showing Isaias weakening approaching Florida(which is exactly what happened) so it shouldn't be written off

It nailed Michael too.

 

[Brent]

In any case the intensity models lol the HWRF is skewing the chart

 

[Henry2326]

Aligned.....

 

[Ollie Williams]

In any case the intensity modelsView attachment 46674

This may be due to the shift north, all models now move past the islands.
18z

00z

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

This may be due to the shift north, all models now move past the islands.
18z
View attachment 46675
00zView attachment 46677

ILL NEED A DEFINED CENTER TO MAKE A BETTER JUDGEMENT ON TRACKS, AT THIS TIME I DONT SEE A GOOD CENTER AND THEREFORE DONT LIKE THE MODEL GUIDANCE

 

[Ollie Williams]

ILL NEED A DEFINED CENTER TO MAKE A BETTER JUDGEMENT ON TRACKS, AT THIS TIME I DONT SEE A GOOD CENTER AND THEREFORE DONT LIKE THE MODEL GUIDANCE

Yeah, the ATCF plumes don’t do a good job representing certainty of a storm since they do not represent the flipping back and forth on each Individual run, especially without a well defined center as you mentioned.

 

[Brent]

Icon showing 2 hurricane threats at the same time again continues to really blow up 98L though

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like CMC 12z, but bigger.....at 60w comes in lower than last version. 943 at landfall.....

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 46680
ICON gives north Florida a major hurricane hit from 98L. Not sure what 97L is doing there.

That track kind of reminds me of Donna.

**Also, for organization purposes, could you edit your post and write at the top, 00z ICON 8/19 in the archive thread?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting to see the GFS make it into the Gulf, however encounter some wind shear.

 

[TheBatman]

Looks like a Panama City hit on the GFS. How crazy is that. One extreme to the other.

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is pretty similar to prior runs with a threat highest to FL: