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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Looks to me that the different results in Icon and Gem is the Icon is riding just a tic north at 60w.....
 
An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progres of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
 
12Z Euro through hour 120 very weak so far/open wave likely headed to GOM.

Great news so far.
 
Last edited:
Henry2326 said:
Thoughts on why Euro isn't developing it?
Click to expand...

Well, the model is smarter than us and is the King. So, I'm hoping like Hades it is on the right track. Keep in mind that the GFS is also weak. The HWRF being strong is no surprise as it has that kind of bias.
The Euro isn't weak due to shear, dry air (dewpoints are 76+), or cool SSTs though there's land interaction later.
What I'd give for this to end up a bunch of nothing!
 
GaWx said:
Well, the model is smarter than us and is the King. So, I'm hoping like Hades it is on the right track. Keep in mind that the GFS is also weak. The HWRF being strong is no surprise as it has that kind of bias.
The Euro isn't weak due to shear, dry air (dewpoints are 76+), or cool SSTs though there's land interaction later.
What I'd give for this to end up a bunch of nothing!
Click to expand...
I'm with ya.....reading other commentary, many are going hmmmmm.
 
Brent said:
I'm baffled as to why the globals are so meh

Like I get being hopeful but for me it doesn't make much sense realistically
Click to expand...
Saharan dust? Shear?
 
Brent said:
I'm baffled as to why the globals are so meh

Like I get being hopeful but for me it doesn't make much sense realistically
Click to expand...
Agree. But like I said yesterday, so far everything has been kind of a mess this year. You'd think we'd see a more robust system. I think we will, especially, if we're not seeing dry air, shear, or cool water. Wonder how instability looks down that way?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Saharan dust? Shear?
Click to expand...

Not shear as it is very light. Can there be SAL with high dewpoints? If so, perhaps SAL??

So far, the 12Z EPS is very quiet thus in agreement with the op thru hour 108+.
 
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