Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[Brent]

NHC still very bullish on developing soon

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Henry2326]

NHC still very bullish on developing soon

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

That doesn't happen very often....so probably a good bet...

 

[Henry2326]

Eyeballing this....looks like it's on Icon path.....geez....

 

[BHS1975]

Seems like ots tracks are way less common now which is troubling considering how many storms end up forming.


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[lexxnchloe]

Eyeballing this....looks like it's on Icon path.....geez....

View attachment 46670

No offence to my florida friends but i hope that doesnt turn up here.

 

[Brent]

The HWRF is all kinds of yikes fortunately it's usually too hyped with invests but it definitely can't be ruled out

 

[BHS1975]

The HWRF is all kinds of yikes fortunately it's usually too hyped with invests but it definitely can't be ruled out

View attachment 46671

Yeah it nailed Dorian


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[Brent]

Yeah it nailed Dorian


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Should also note I remember it showing Isaias weakening approaching Florida(which is exactly what happened) so it shouldn't be written off

 

[Henry2326]

Should also note I remember it showing Isaias weakening approaching Florida(which is exactly what happened) so it shouldn't be written off

It nailed Michael too.

 

[Brent]

In any case the intensity models lol the HWRF is skewing the chart

 

[Henry2326]

Aligned.....

 

[Ollie Williams]

In any case the intensity modelsView attachment 46674

This may be due to the shift north, all models now move past the islands.
18z

00z

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

This may be due to the shift north, all models now move past the islands.
18z
View attachment 46675
00zView attachment 46677

ILL NEED A DEFINED CENTER TO MAKE A BETTER JUDGEMENT ON TRACKS, AT THIS TIME I DONT SEE A GOOD CENTER AND THEREFORE DONT LIKE THE MODEL GUIDANCE

 

[Ollie Williams]

ILL NEED A DEFINED CENTER TO MAKE A BETTER JUDGEMENT ON TRACKS, AT THIS TIME I DONT SEE A GOOD CENTER AND THEREFORE DONT LIKE THE MODEL GUIDANCE

Yeah, the ATCF plumes don’t do a good job representing certainty of a storm since they do not represent the flipping back and forth on each Individual run, especially without a well defined center as you mentioned.

 

[Brent]

Icon showing 2 hurricane threats at the same time again continues to really blow up 98L though

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like CMC 12z, but bigger.....at 60w comes in lower than last version. 943 at landfall.....

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 46680
ICON gives north Florida a major hurricane hit from 98L. Not sure what 97L is doing there.

That track kind of reminds me of Donna.

**Also, for organization purposes, could you edit your post and write at the top, 00z ICON 8/19 in the archive thread?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting to see the GFS make it into the Gulf, however encounter some wind shear.

 

[TheBatman]

Looks like a Panama City hit on the GFS. How crazy is that. One extreme to the other.

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is pretty similar to prior runs with a threat highest to FL:

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET 144:

 

[Brent]

CMC also with two storms in the Gulf



Then 98 goes into New Orleans

 

[GaWx]

Believe it or not, the 0Z Euro is even a tad weaker than the already very weak 12Z through hour 48. So, the run once again looks to not develop it until at least the longitude of FL, if at all.

Edit: It never developed it. And the EPS is once again very quiet at least until it gets near the longitude of FL. This is a fascinating Invest to say the least!

 

[Brent]

Believe it or not, the 0Z Euro is even a tad weaker than the already very weak 12Z through hour 48. So, the run once again looks to not develop it until at least the longitude of FL, if at all.

At what point do we throw out the Euro if we get an advisory in the next day or two at this rate? Lol

 

[Shawn]

It was my understanding that the ICON model used Euro's initialization data, and if that's the case, it's interesting to see them so far apart.

 

[Brent]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

 

[Ethan80963]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

View attachment 46692

Based off that sat imagine it looks like it’s made some strides towards being better organized. Better banding, the eastern portion has dissipated, and better cold tops poping.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advisory today if this trend continues if the Euro is gonna be right there will be a major poof today

View attachment 46692

YOU GOT LOTS OF CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE OFF ON THE SOUTH AND NE QUADS OF THIS WAVE, IT MAY BE TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Ethan80963]

6z GEFS

 

[SD]

Satellite looks better than I expected this morning waiting to get some good visible images.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[tramadoc]

12z Navgem....interesting

View attachment 46665

Could that feature over AL/MS kick it out to sea?

 

[tramadoc]

That thing looks like it’s trying to develop into a monster sized storm.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looks like a sharp north/east turn no matter how far west it gets...Almost October like...which helps here keep all the action down East NC and south into Florida

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Shaggy]

So 5pm or 11pm on advisories? Looking better on satellite.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Definitely looks like it's getting there on visible but there's still work to be done imo.

 

[GaWx]

Some good news on the 12Z Icon as it at hour 81 continues the weaker trend of the last 8 runs with 98L at 1004 mb vs 991 mb 8 runs ago.

Aside: it also has 97L stronger than recent runs.

Edit: this weaker trend of 98L/stronger trend of 97L continues through hour 120.

 

[GaWx]

However, 12Z Icon still gets it way down to 960 mb at hour 174 and 954 mb at the end (hour 180)(hopefully overdone considering the model’s trends but we’ll see)