Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[SD]

Thoughts on why Euro isn't developing it?

Strings out the vorticity and fast movement. Likely competing circulations within the trough.

 

[GaWx]

Perhaps this competition will keep it weak and may be why the Euro and GFS are weak?
12Z EPS, like the 0Z EPS, is vey quiet through 132 with only 1 of 51 at TS+ strength!
Later as it gets to near the E GOM, it develops some members like the 0Z did. Also, there are a few weak members off the SE coast with one nearing H strength as it passes just offshore the NC OB.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Shaggy]

Strings out the vorticity and fast movement. Likely competing circulations within the trough.

Sounds similar to the way Isieias formed. Took a while to figure out which area would develop and that is always a problem for early modeling to pin down which sometimes will effect long range results.

 

[BHS1975]

Looks to be getting its act together in the latest vis loop.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

GFS after showing nothing earlier develops it along the east coast of Florida and it strengthens into a hurricane probably heading north not unlike Isaias

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS after showing nothing earlier develops it along the east coast of Florida and it strengthens into a hurricane probably heading north not unlike Isaias

View attachment 46658

Stays just off the Florida coast from hr 162 to around hr 216. Quite the precip map so far.

 

[Brent]

Very similar to Isaias near the Carolinas

 

[Henry2326]

Bad for the Carolinas as it stays weak off FL coast....will be interesting to see if Euro moves to East coast tonight.

 

[Henry2326]

18z stays with its last run at that point.....

 

[Henry2326]

12z Navgem....interesting

 

[Shaggy]

12z Navgem....interesting

View attachment 46665

Not that the navgem needs to be taken seriously as it's not best but the difference IMO between it, the icon, and ukie is a stronger storm earlier and further east COULD cut down on impacts to Florida and offer an earlier and cleaner miss off the east coast versus a scraper like the gfs had.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I thought i was in the clear. Hopefully not another isie.

 

[Henry2326]

Not that the navgem needs to be taken seriously as it's not best but the difference IMO between it, the icon, and ukie is a stronger storm earlier and further east COULD cut down on impacts to Florida and offer an earlier and cleaner miss off the east coast versus a scraper like the gfs had.

I agree.....I watch it only for consistency to see if it aligns with others. Euro tonight will be interesting....if it moves east.

 

[GaWx]

18z GEFS is fairly similar to recent runs and is active:

 

[ryan1234]

12z Navgem....interesting

View attachment 46665

Very to say the least. I'd imagine that system in AL would have some influence on the other system's path.

 

[Brent]

I thought i was in the clear. Hopefully not another isie.

Not that I think the GFS is correct or anything but no one is in the clear when were talking about 7-10 days out

Also this could easily be a recurve or in the Gulf at this point

 

[lexxnchloe]

Not that I think the GFS is correct or anything but no one is in the clear when were talking about 7-10 days out

Also this could easily be a recurve or in the Gulf at this point

Hopefully somewhere besides wilmington, lol

 

[Henry2326]

18z GEFS is fairly similar to recent runs and is active:

View attachment 46667

Some consistency for placement with all but Euro now.

 

[Ethan80963]