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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

GaWx said:
However, 12Z Icon still gets it way down to 960 mb at hour 174 and 954 mb at the end (hour 180)(hopefully overdone considering the model’s trends but we’ll see)

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Since it shed off that competing blob of convection it has shown vast improvements in organization. It's clear this will be a TD soon. The models that keep it so weak early may not have the best grasp.on this one yet.

Quite honestly I hope this blows up sooner rather than later and a stronger system just might have enough room to recurve.
 
Seems like Some models pick up on northwesterly shear as it heads into the gulf and then it relaxes and heights build atop it
 
98L is organizing at a pretty good rate. Energy looks to be bundling around the alleged COC. Visible seems to indicate this process beautifully, and I can see it rotating clouds from that convection to its South and Southeast. Could be a depression within the next 12 hours.

It certainly looks like a legitimate threat for Florida and the Gulf Coast states.
 
12Z UKMET: 98L dissipates and later reforms it appears from what I can tell. But bottom line is that it is no longer off FL/is further south over Cuba

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 43.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2020 0 11.6N 43.6W 1011 20
0000UTC 20.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52
 
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GaWx said:
The usually/likely overdone 12Z CMC (aka Crazy Uncle) for the record but we'll see later:

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I understand we ALL want to know where it’s going (98L) 5-8 days from now. In my opinion we should focus on what we know. This is a td now. We need advisories for the northern Antilles now. I would focus more on sheer and dry air around the DR right now if it survives that and minimal land interference (similar to Isaias ) There really isn’t much to stop it. SST in the Bahamas and perfect 200mb winds would allow Intensification.


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Certainly a healthy MLC right now, not entirely sure the LLC is quite as well defined right now. System will be passing south of a TUTT over the next 24-36 hours that will be weakening. We should see some WSW to SW shear impact the system tomorrow which may be part of the reason why the models are keeping development muted.
 
Shaggy said:
Do you think it's a lack of data ingest from the slower flying patterns we see due to covid? 98L sure looks solid right now to become a TD and one good sustained flare up from TS.
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I'd be interested to see the Euro moisture/shear maps from about HR 48-144. Something is interrupting the circulation and from the cruddy free maps I have no idea
 
SD said:
I'd be interested to see the Euro moisture/shear maps from about HR 48-144. Something is interrupting the circulation and from the cruddy free maps I have no idea
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From what I saw earlier it looks like there was a ULL along its path
 
SD said:
Yeah there is definitely a TUTT above the ridge in the central Atlantic but that is weakening and lifting Im more interested in why it doesn't get going as it approaches the bahamas
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yeah I don’t got access to the good maps nomore either tbh so I’m kinda lost to, I needa get wx bell back, prefer it over wxmodels tbh, but who here has a 250mb map when it’s approaching the Bahamas on the euro
 
I'm betting on no upgrade to a TD today and waiting til tomorrow to see. Models are too bearish overall and it is still not clear it is a TD yet from all I've seen/read.. Satellites can be deceptive and the circulation appears to be broad.

Edit: Now if I knew that Stacey Stewart were doing the evening shift, I might have a different bet.
 
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GaWx said:
I'm betting on no upgrade to a TD today and waiting til tomorrow to see. Models are too bearish overall and it is still not clear it is a TD yet from all I've seen/read.. Satellites can be deceptive and the circulation appears to be broad.

Edit: Now if I knew that Stacey Stewart were doing the evening shift, I might have a different bet.
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They usually are conservative anyway when it's this far east so I'm not surprised they are holding off

But I wouldn't be surprised either if it comes at 11pm
 
Icon still looks like a threat to Florida and the gfs is about the same. Icon doesnt get this under 1005mb till the Bahamas.
 
Shaggy said:
Icon still looks like a threat to Florida and the gfs is about the same. Icon doesnt get this under 1005mb till the Bahamas.
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Compared to 4 runs ago, Icon 18z track is the same until the end.....its just a tic north.....also 4 runs ago it was 971 compared to 18z st 989 at the end on the 18z run.
 
Time to throw out the globals lol

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Re
 
Brent said:
Time to throw out the globals lol

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Re
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I'm proud of them......lol
 
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