• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Tornadocane said:
98L is organizing at a pretty good rate. Energy looks to be bundling around the alleged COC. Visible seems to indicate this process beautifully, and I can see it rotating clouds from that convection to its South and Southeast. Could be a depression within the next 12 hours.
Click to expand...

As visible satellite goes dark, organization has become evident on IR. Looks like the vorticities at each level are coming closer in alignment. Expect a burst of convection over the broad COC triggering NHC to designate this a tropical depression by11PM.
 
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
Click to expand...
Do you think that if we see a stronger solution develop, then this will turn into a SE coastal threat as opposed to a Gulf threat or does the ridge look strong enough to steer it on into the Gulf either way?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given that this is already a tropical cyclone (or nearly so), I'd ignore the ECMWF. Even its own ensemble is significantly more aggressive & arguably more reasonable. I fully expect this model to correct back towards a more aggressive solution & most other NWP models in the next few cycles
Click to expand...
Omg.....mark the calendar....just kidding ya. Lol
 
Correct me if I'm mistaken.. Most of the stronger solutions seem to keep the storm on a mostly Western track instead of a recurve, and the trend today has been to move the time frame for the storms arrival forward about 12-18 hours. My assumption is that the Ridge is stronger, the storm is steered faster, and the ridge won't have enough time to breakdown before the storm approaches Florida.

This looks to be a completely different situation than the I storm. The ridge isn't likely to breakdown.
 
98L will be an East coast storm and not a GOM. Just my feeling. I think this thing corrects further north before the Leeward Islands, passes nor5h of Hispâniola and sets it's eyes on the Bahamas.
 
Looks like we will have either a PTC or TD 13 in about a half hour

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,
 
This ones gonna be the strongest hit for the United States this year. I’m confident in that. Cat 2 or higher. Can someone help me with a question. Has upstate sc north of 85 Pickens Oconee Greenville county sc ever had a tropical storm watch or warning in the past?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jessy89 said:
This ones gonna be the strongest hit for the United States this year. I’m confident in that. Cat 2 or higher. Can someone help me with a question. Has upstate sc north of 85 Pickens Oconee Greenville county sc ever had a tropical storm watch or warning in the past?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
really premature to say that with so much of the season left.And no but Hugo warranted one but terminology was different back then
 
Jessy89 said:
This ones gonna be the strongest hit for the United States this year. I’m confident in that. Cat 2 or higher. Can someone help me with a question. Has upstate sc north of 85 Pickens Oconee Greenville county sc ever had a tropical storm watch or warning in the past?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not sure about the upstate but I know Buncombe had a tropical storm warning in the last few years. I think it was from Michael.
 
Good thing we have tropical storm watches out now for the islands that means more frequent NHC updates for us In USA
 
I wonder why globals are struggling the same way they did with Hurricane Hanna..seems like these major updates they do on the models we see stuff like this happen more often come hurricane season
 
Yeah I think it's fair to not be bullish to start. No need to have people panicking, yet.

Having said that, Eric's earlier points in this thread were good. We might be looking at problems. Let's just not get carried away until we cross that bridge.
 
Jessy89 said:
This ones gonna be the strongest hit for the United States this year. I’m confident in that. Cat 2 or higher. Can someone help me with a question. Has upstate sc north of 85 Pickens Oconee Greenville county sc ever had a tropical storm watch or warning in the past?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hurricane Michael was still a pretty solid tropical storm when it rolled through Columbia a couple years back (that drive to work was dicey, I was one of the only morons on the road lol)

I don’t recall anything really northwest of that one
 
MichaelAndrews said:
Hurricane Michael was still a pretty solid tropical storm when it rolled through Columbia a couple years back (that drive to work was dicey, I was one of the only morons on the road lol)

I don’t recall anything really northwest of that one
Click to expand...

I think a strong hurricane with the right track. Could bring something like that to those areas


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top