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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Henry2326 said:
18z Icon......faster and weaker

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My question is this... what effect would a tropical storm in the western Gulf have on a hurricane in the eastern Gulf?? By no means is it guaranteed that scenario plays out, but the models have been hinting at today. I would assume the storm in the eastern Gulf would have done steering influence on the hurricane.
 
Chazwin said:
My question is this... what effect would a tropical storm in the western Gulf have on a hurricane in the eastern Gulf?? By no means is it guaranteed that scenario plays out, but the models have been hinting at today. I would assume the storm in the eastern Gulf would have done steering influence on the hurricane.
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Think of spinning two tops. As they interact they typically slow down. Same would occur with two storms. The weaker of the two would probably weaken the most but we will see because this don’t happen often


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Chazwin said:
My question is this... what effect would a tropical storm in the western Gulf have on a hurricane in the eastern Gulf?? By no means is it guaranteed that scenario plays out, but the models have been hinting at today. I would assume the storm in the eastern Gulf would have done steering influence on the hurricane.
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I would lean toward the models don't have adequate variables to address the issue because no one can remember this scenario ever playing out in real life.
 
More good news allowing us to rest a little easier at least for now (although there's still plenty of uncertainty as a lot depends on the track and TD 14):

1. 12Z Para has it merely an appendage of TD 14 once in the Gulf.
2. 18Z GEFS by far the quietest vs recent runs.
 
Okay, so allow me to play the "devil's advocate" for a minute. I read back and noticed some back and fourths between some of our members. Mostly about how some people have this illusion that people hope for the worse when it comes to natural disasters. I don't think that is the case, at all. Look, we're all-weather enthusiast, does that mean we want a loss of property and life? No, we just like weather, in general. That includes disasters. Why do you think we all get excited and flood the forums during tornado outbreaks, ice storms, floods, and every now and then, winter storms? They are can be equally as devastating. No one here wishes ill will on anyone. So, let's tone down the "holier than thou" attitudes. Anyway, regarding the storm, it would be nice to see some action. I would love to say, I am chasing from my backyard as opposed to having to drive hundreds of miles to see some action. This storm could very well impact a large portion of us, so let's sit back, relax, and let mother nature do her thing!
 
I don't know what it is going to do, imo, models tend to trend east with the storm over timing for landfall because they can't nail the weather pattern down, way too far out to make any prediction, nhcs cone could lead to an out to see or gom solution, its just something to watch, way too early to make any kind of prediction but i would say anywhere from la the the ob needs to watch it, models will change drastically over time, lets just see what it does instead of making predictions, would i like to see effects from it with wind and all yea, but nothing to cause life and property to be lost, as was mentioned in a previous post, lets all just see by sunday what happens with modeling, not complaining but just saying way to early to make any type of landfall "guess", ill keep reading yalls post
 
All hail the earlier maligned King! Its Happy Hour version is once again a reason to be happy with it having only a very weak system.
So, the Euro/GFS overall weak solutions may end up the best despite it missing it getting TD status already.
Also, all hail Levi, who was quite bearish for today and the next couple hope of days in his excellent video of last evening.
 
Lickwx said:
I don’t think that has to do with the mountains though as much as it has to do with the Coriolis force that makes hurricanes recurve so sharply ne at this latitude . It would take a very strong , very westward ridge to push something that far west which I guess just doesn’t happen . Otherwise how could a hurricane sense the presence of mountains and just recurve , that doesn’t make sense to me at all as an explanation .
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Coriolis effect is something I learned about in long range shooting, ie. distances over 1,000 meters. So not only do you have to take into account wind direction and speed, humidity, distance to target, but you also have to figure in the coriolis effect as well. Everything else about my weapon and loads are in my DOPE book.
 
Jon said:
Just goes to show how far gone the HWRF and COAMPS are right now. Obviously it’s intensifying this thing too quickly and are outliers, but the pretty reflectivity HWRF outputs are too good for weenies to pass up!
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Great computer backgrounds I must say.


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Levi's servers have been getting absolutely hammered lately. The site keeps loading slower and slower; Hopefully his Patreon will pay for it, or there's a real chance a lot of his great data may end up not being free one day.
 
Shawn said:
Levi's servers have been getting absolutely hammered lately. The site keeps loading slower and slower; Hopefully his Patreon will pay for it, or there's a real chance a lot of his great data may end up not being free one day.
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just imagine a real threat if its struggling for this lol
 
All models do horrible with intensity forecasts on tropical systems. I’m sure we all know this, but it needs to be brought up again, we have two systems going into bath water temps in the gulf and they are showing tropical storm and a minimal hurricane! Pros will tell you that the intensity is way more problematic than track. The storm in the E PAC the other day underwent RI and suprised most everybody!
 
Tarheel1 said:
All models do horrible with intensity forecasts on tropical systems. I’m sure we all know this, but it needs to be brought up again, we have two systems going into bath water temps in the gulf and they are showing tropical storm and a minimal hurricane! Pros will tell you that the intensity is way more problematic than track. The storm in the E PAC the other day underwent RI and suprised most everybody!
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I can’t help but to think back to a couple years ago when the Euro and GFS both were showing Michael as a minimal hurricane at landfall on the Panhandle and then we ended up with a strengthening Cat 5. Obviously I don’t think intensity will be that far off of modeling this time, but it’s hard to imagine that TD 13 stays together and enters the Gulf that it doesn’t get to a 2/3 before landfall.
 
Intensity forecast I’m not paying any attention because the gulf is 87 degrees bath water. Who knows how strong it could get in the Gulf. Untouched fuel


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Levi’s da man: he’s been right on so far



He is an amazing teacher and communicator. He says he'll know a lot more at the longitude of of PR within 48 hours. If it remains tilted due to shear (midlevel and LLC not together), it will not amount to much for FL and nearby But if it is then better stacked like the then latest HWRF had, that would set it up for potential significant intensification.
 
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Snow_chaser said:
Ugh, looks like a nighttime landfall
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Hurricane opal did the same thing didn’t sleep that night because the house would vibrate when trees were falling around us and in our subdivision.. scary! I don’t think this will be another opal. Hopefully a lot weaker!
 
Fisherman said:
Hurricane opal did the same thing didn’t sleep that night because the house would vibrate when trees were falling around us and in our subdivision.. scary! I don’t think this will be another opal. Hopefully a lot weaker!
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I meant to say shake and not vibrate?
 
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_43.png
lol
 
1) 0Z UKMET: TD 13 falls apart and later regenerates in the FL straits before moving into the GOM:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 55.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2020 0 17.6N 55.6W 1010 31
1200UTC 21.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.7N 77.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 72 19.7N 77.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 24.08.2020 84 21.1N 81.0W 1005 36
0000UTC 25.08.2020 96 22.8N 84.1W 1003 33
1200UTC 25.08.2020 108 24.4N 87.3W 1003 39
0000UTC 26.08.2020 120 26.1N 89.8W 1000 37
1200UTC 26.08.2020 132 27.7N 91.6W 996 48
0000UTC 27.08.2020 144 29.7N 92.6W 987 51

2) 0Z GEFS is quiet until the GOM, where some members develop into a TS or H and them go into SE LA

3) 0Z Euro is still weak.
 
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