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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

GeorgiaGirl said:
Wonder if this gains enough latitude for its core to mostly avoid Hispaniola and Cuba. There's time for it to, but there have been people talking like it won't.
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Do you think that’s why the weaker solutions are now showing at landfall? If there’s a lot of land interaction there won’t be enough time to intensify a lot?
 
Different from previous ICON versions, 12z has alot of land interaction. We might not know what we have until it gets through the obstacles....It literally tears it apart into a wave.

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_21_12_46_38_398.jpg
 
I've noticed with looking at MBY yard weather, that War is getting stronger and nudging a little more southwest. I think that's why we are seeing the track shift nudge more and more south.
 
I'm hoping for the weaker solutions. Sometimes I understand one's urge to chase a hurricane, but the New Orleans area still has recovering to do left from Katrina, not to mention a COVID Crisis. If you're hoping for anything stronger than a Tropical Storm you have problems...
 
I’m not saying Laura will be a blockbuster by any means. But stronger then modeled wouldn’t surprise me. The gulf is 87 degrees


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Still a ways out with this one, so I'll start worrying about the track and intensity once it hits the gulf.
 
Models have been terrible with intensity this year we shouldn't just assume it won't strengthen though.

Though I do agree it could spend a lot of time over land and be weaker

We don't know what the structure will be like as it moves into the Gulf to be honest and let's remember Isaias blew up over Hispanola lol nobody predicted that

It could easily be a naked swirl or something that can take off it is late August

We also don't know if 14/Marco will be an issue or not there's a thousand possibilities here
 
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...LAURA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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ForsythSnow said:
If it's in the gulf for 2 days and well organized I wouldn't rule a 4 or 5 out. I wouldn't rule a 4 out even if it enters as a strong TS or hurricane.
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The next couple of days are really critical the HWRF misses all the land and conversely bombs in the Gulf

924 mb modernweenie

Conversely a track over the length of Hispanola and Cuba could spell a wave

hwrf_satIR_13L_18.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yep that Euro is saying that we're going to have at least two tropical storms based off that free map. ^

Edit: And it's saying something that it went from "meh, nbd" to that. These models are not doing a good job at all of late.
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Models have been as bad with hurricanes as they are with potential winter storms here the past few years.
 
Man, I have never seen any models handle tropical systems well more than 48 hours out. I don’t even pay serious attention until we are 24-48 hours out. They are just as bad if not worse than how they are with handling winter weather. Some interesting times ahead though.
 
"But if, for some reason, Laura strengthens and we get potentially Marcos being stronger, then Marcos could absorb Laura and it could make a stronger storm," she said.

Excerpt from an article posted on WRAL in NC today. Elizabeth Gardner was the author of the article. I haven't seen this possibility mentioned in here so I thought it was an interesting possibility.
 
The takeaway from the models, as always, if it goes over the shredder islands, we got nothing at the other side....
 
I think it's just the HWRF being the HWRF, but at 36 hours it's a disjointed / Is there even an LLC / can we even call it a Cyclone / mess North of the Mona Passage.

1598036497255.png

BUT.... Is it being HWRFish, or is it pulling a play from the ISAIAS playbook by using Hispanola as a way to tighten it's core...
Becuase 9 hours later we might have...

1598036461922.png
 
the models are not bad just because they go from CAT5 to tropical storm the margin of error is like 50 miles of being over land/mountains or hot water. It’s just not clear cut and every wobble/trend is gonna matter soon on whether it avoids a lot of land or not .
 
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