That’s such a weird hard hook to the right (East) once it’s made landfall.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
NoSnowJoe
Member
The westward trend continues.
Henry2326
Member
18z ICON.....shredded to smitherreens....open wave....
Jessy89
Member
I could see it trend back east eventually
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Brent
Member
It's been showing that consistently it's just a couple days ago it hooked over Florida and the Carolinas(at one point even thought it might recurve east entirely)
GFS almost in Texas this run lol
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NoSnowATL
Member
I need to follow that guy!
Brent
Member
I have to wonder if it's gonna be king HWRF lol the GFS is now down into the 960s
Obviously it's one run but seeing the Euro start to go stronger makes you wonder
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF at hour 66..... no land interaction....982 as crosses by tip of FL....this will be ugly....
That’s going to be closer to the S tip of FL it appears vs prior run.
Edit: Yep, as run went further confirmed to be closer to S tip of mainland FL than last few runs and affecting more of Keys more directly. Is this track an outlier?
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Models look pretty stacked right now many with just a 10-20 mile difference but that’s all you need to avoid land or slam it.
Henry2326
Member
Looks like it might run closer to the FL coast....
If it shoots the gap, game on.
Henry2326
Member
This run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Brent
Member
That's one to save modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie 
Jessy89
Member
Interaction with cube and Hispaniola would lead to the further west Track. Where as no interaction would lead to a further east track and much stronger storm
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Henry2326
Member
Nasty....
HMON 922mb headed to Texas Louisiana boarder
HWRF Parent farther south than the HWRF but ends with a 929mb storm.
Henry2326
Member
HWRF 936 on the MS/AL border.....just ugly....
ryanardo
Member
i agree deleet hwrf modeling, lmao
Brent
Member
The HWRF may be wrong here but it did win the 2017 season. I'll give it one thing it's been consistent
Interesting to see the HMON even stronger
Interesting to see the HMON even stronger
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Lotta water up into mobile bay. Not good
Brent
Member
The 18z Euro which only goes out to 90 hours is much stronger with a pressure in the 980s(again this is well before landfall) it's also much further south closer to Cuba than Florida
Oh and it's stronger than the GFS at that timeframe which landfalled in the 960s
Remember when the Euro had a wave???
Oh and it's stronger than the GFS at that timeframe which landfalled in the 960s
Remember when the Euro had a wave???
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
What matters is going to be seeing how intact this is when it enters the gulf assuming it misses major land interaction with Cuba/Hispaniola. If it hasn't degenerated, from things I've read, I'd be very concerned regardless if I were on the gulf coast. May not be a 4/5 (wouldn't bet on one), but could see a dangerous storm.
The higher intensity models do have this beginning to strengthen tomorrow though.
The higher intensity models do have this beginning to strengthen tomorrow though.
Henry2326
Member
It has been extremely consistent....it will be interesting to see how it verifys......I remember clearly everyone ignoring it with Michael and it more than verified.....
Blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, but that’s just my opinion. Very well could verify
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm definitely getting more intrigued since it's getting more data now. I fully thought it would back off by now and the fact it hasn't is definitely an issue. Yeah it looks like crap today but it's never really done anything til Sunday on approach to the Keys anyway. The other part is now the other models are trending stronger... Look at the Euro and GFS now compared to yesterday
00z spaghetti models
ITS BECAUSE ITS GETTING INTO THAT JET FUEL CALLED THE GULF THAT HAS NOT BEEN DISTURBED
Most of them plowing through the islands still, looks like
I wonder if we’ll see a center relocation closer to the better convention.
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Interestingly, the 18z Euro suite takes this system south of Cuba. The Op is much stronger, and ensembles are as well in comparison to their 12z counterparts.
SnowE73
Member
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A dramatic southward shift has occurred with the 18z ECMWF+EPS guidance for Tropical Storm Laura -- and it is very concerning. This model's solutions are clustered along & south of Cuba into the very-warm Gulf of Mexico in 4-5 days. Not good. ? <a href="https://t.co/qhcPVtx88n">pic.twitter.com/qhcPVtx88n</a></p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="">August 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Shaggy
Member
I remember what the HWRF had for gonzalo as well.
Certainly needs to be watched and it's possible it's right but the HWRF can really blow storms up.
Brent
Member
So we've gone from way east of me to where I was more focused on 14 to possibly completely south of me like Hanna in a day lol ?
Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Honestly I'm guessing if these trends don't stop we're going to be at it plowing into those islands that kill storms tomorrow.
But who knows.