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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Continue to watch the UAL and one thing that is pretty consistent the past five runs the trough over the Gulf isn’t budging. This is what will cause #TSLaura to push further west. However, Laura May track up the entire terrain of Cuba and could substantially slow down. The models may be catching on to this idea, Hence the the 12z spaghetti models have shifted east compared since yesterday. It is very unlikely this storm will be stronger then 90mph winds.

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Does the NHC track take the fujiwrara effect into consideration?


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Jessy89 said:
Does the NHC track take the fujiwrara effect into consideration?


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They will if they feel it's warranted. Right now, it's falla in the speculation realm.

Edit: I guess I could have said "it falls in...". But I guess ""it's fella in..." works too lol.
 
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Another concept to think about is that #TSMarco will be in the Gulf first. The trough has actually pulled the storm north and will completely miss the Yucatán. #TSLaura will be moving in the exact waters Marco traveled in. Cooling the waters before Laura arrives. This will hamper any major redevelopment once Laura emerges from Cuba.

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CADEffect said:
Another concept to think about is that #TSMarco will be in the Gulf first. The trough has actually pulled the storm north and will completely miss the Yucatán. #TSLaura will be moving in the exact waters Marco traveled in. Cooling the waters before Laura arrives. This will hamper any major redevelopment once Laura emerges from Cuba.

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NHC discussion disagrees


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Not seeing much on it, but if thing thing comes of Hispaniola, then stays over land the length of Cuba, she may be dead by the time she gets to the Gulf. There's a reason those islands are called shredders. Hopefully this happens.
 
Arcc said:
Marco will not cause any significant upwelling over that region unless it sits there for weeks. That loop current pumps in warm water constantly.
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That is one thing that I didn’t consider was the speed of the system (Marco). I stand corrected. Fresh out of class lacking experience. Some of you old timers help me out there.


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I wonder if we end up with a follow the leader as Marco weakens the western edge of the WAR enough to bring Laura more north.


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Could Marco create a stirring current for Laura seems like a wait and see


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I've never seen models struggle this much with hurricanes. The spaghetti plots for this system are STILL all over the place and don't get me started on the strength of this system on the models. If this is a precursor to what winter will entail, I may seriously not even bother with looking at modeling. We will literally drive ourselves crazy, even more so than years prior.
 
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I just read where this is first time to ever have 2 hurricanes in the GOM at same time if happens. So we are in uncharted waters as to how this all plays out. These models will probably will have numbers of solutions because they have never had to run this type of scenarios. How the heck does any model understand what could happen. 2020 sure wants to be remembered and that’s not in a good way.
 
ryan1234 said:
The Gulf is a bathtub right now, so it only makes sense. I am not really buying into these weaker solutions. No way does this thing remains a weak hurricane or TS in open Gulf waters.
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I've been saying from the start can't rule it out verifying it hasnt backed down

We all know intensity is always the hardest to predict
 
ryan1234 said:
The Gulf is a bathtub right now, so it only makes sense. I am not really buying into these weaker solutions. No way does this thing remains a weak hurricane or TS in open Gulf waters.
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Now what I'm curious about is the interaction with Marco. Marco has the chance to bomb out in the next 24 hours and has no chance at heavy land interaction until it hits the US. The whole idea of Laura shearing Marco down feels wrong but then again I haven't looked into what dominates with Fujiwara, whether it be storm intensity, size, or location.
 
ryan1234 said:
Okay... do you care to back that prediction up or are you just making a guess?
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Just dont think the physics of the situation makes sense. If marco goes into LA then i dont see how Laura does the same. We will see, but i think hurricanes always leave a trof behind and if Laura were to get to the fla straits it would hook quickly ne.
 
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