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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

CADEffect said:
Yes, but with Major hurricanes when a eye wall collapses. (Fills in) lack of a better term it normally means major redevelopment. Michael, Katrina and even Irma did this.


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A weakening eyewall means weakening period. Now an ERC can lead to strengthening after the cycle is complete, but that isn’t what is happening here.

Probably twelve to eighteen hours left in this strengthening cycle unless shear interferes.
 


Anyone know why he says it's 45,000 ft up? With a 0.53 degree tilt and distance of ~250 miles (tan(0.53')*250) should get something like 12,000 ft...?
 
Looks like down to ~955mb (from ~960mb about an hour ago)

140330 2642N 09149W 6967 02778 9557 +162 +099 054006 013 022 001 03
140400 2640N 09147W 6965 02776 9546 +172 +097 125001 004 /// /// 03
140430 2639N 09146W 6965 02773 9546 +168 +118 245013 017 /// /// 03
140500 2637N 09145W 6965 02783 9554 +168 +126 239024 028 /// /// 03
140530 2638N 09143W 6968 02780 9550 +169 +122 212028 029 /// /// 03
140600 2640N 09141W 6974 02767 9529 +190 +101 175028 029 /// /// 03
140630 2641N 09140W 6969 02776 9529 +194 +090 171033 035 /// /// 03
140700 2642N 09138W 6967 02782 9542 +186 +094 162038 039 035 003 03
 
Previous pass was 957.5 and this one is 952.9, almost a 5mb drop in the extrap in one pass. This will be in the 940s by noon if this continues.
 
To my untrained eye.. a few hours ago on IR (8am), you could really tell the left side of the storm was restricted and looked a bit squished (and despite this, it still rapidly strengthened), but looking at it now, it looks really good...
 
We are near that unknown territory where we don’t know if we see zero one two or three EWRC before landfall. Time is running out tho and the surge has already been created so an imminent disaster is coming.
 
342
URNT15 KWBC 261431
NOAA2 2213A LAURA HDOB 32 20200826
142200 2632N 09136W 7513 02284 9770 +146 +141 219102 106 079 055 00
142230 2633N 09138W 7524 02244 9740 +142 //// 217102 104 085 068 01
142300 2634N 09139W 7504 02230 9681 +162 //// 223081 085 100 035 05
142330 2636N 09141W 7510 02208 9651 +172 //// 225072 075 094 026 01
142400 2637N 09142W 7525 02172 9618 +190 +174 219057 059 080 009 00
142430 2639N 09144W 7517 02163 9595 +205 +150 219044 048 059 005 00
142500 2640N 09145W 7527 02142 9580 +212 +138 218032 036 042 005 00
142530 2641N 09147W 7522 02143 9578 +207 +127 220017 021 025 006 00
142600 2643N 09149W 7515 02146 9576 +202 +143 211005 007 025 004 03
142630 2644N 09150W 7520 02138 9578 +196 +145 101005 007 026 004 00
142700 2646N 09152W 7515 02146 9578 +195 +154 086012 016 022 005 03
142730 2647N 09154W 7530 02129 9583 +195 +151 079022 026 031 003 03
142800 2649N 09156W 7509 02164 9593 +193 +143 066033 035 028 005 03
142830 2650N 09157W 7515 02164 9597 +201 +119 057035 036 033 005 00
142900 2652N 09159W 7517 02165 9593 +211 +121 047036 043 051 006 00
142930 2653N 09201W 7513 02177 9615 +184 +160 043060 070 076 006 00
143000 2655N 09202W 7527 02183 9642 +178 +165 045078 081 094 010 00
143030 2656N 09204W 7524 02208 9670 +173 +172 049090 094 098 007 00
143100 2657N 09205W 7521 02241 9706 +169 +164 049097 098 096 008 00
143130 2659N 09207W 7522 02264 9731 +169 +164 050095 097 094 008 00
Click to expand...
According to the NOAA plane, the pressure is at 957.8 mb.
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
Laura is now expected to peak as 145 mph hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 27.0N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Click to expand...
 
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