Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[Brick Tamland]

For those scoring at home this is a big L for the euro and its ensembles.

Yeah, Euro was the last to jump on board, but now it has gone a complete 180 and is the strongest with Laura.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yeah, Euro was the last to jump on board, but now it has gone a complete 180 and is the strongest with Laura.

I believe it was the 12Z run yesterday, the majority of its members were near Houston or maybe even some south of there. Credit the NHC for staying rock steady and not taking that bait.

 

[Henry2326]

06z primarily in the same spot.
HWRF 937
HMON 934
EURO 00z 940
NAM 890
The rest are higher than current levels and never seeing current numbers.


All n

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW, the 06z Euro bottoms out at 945mb, but also, due to not updating its data, by this time it was forecasted to get to 973mb, so you can take 10 off, and get 935mb bottoming out.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[tramadoc]

06z primarily in the same spot.
HWRF 937
HMON 934
EURO 00z 940
NAM 890
The rest are higher than current levels and never seeing current numbers.

View attachment 47343
All nView attachment 47339

I highly doubt we see a sub 900mb Cat 5 like the NAM is showing. What was the last one that was as low as what the NAM is showing? Wilma? Like 885mb or something?

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

I highly doubt we see a sub 900mb Cat 5 like the NAM is showing. What was the last one that was as low as what the NAM is showing? Wilma? Like 885mb or something?

The 06z NAM has 963 at 7:00 this morning.......reported recon at 7:00 is 963. So it's starting at a good place. Let's see.....Michael went to 919 in about 8 hours and Camille in 12 hours, so its doable.....

 

[NCSNOW]

Shes gonna RI for a good while to come.

 

[Brick Tamland]

06z primarily in the same spot.
HWRF 937
HMON 934
EURO 00z 940
NAM 890
The rest are higher than current levels and never seeing current numbers.

View attachment 47343
All nView attachment 47339

Between 930 and 940 mb looks like a good bet. I think we're going to see it hit as a cat 4 with 140 mph winds.

 

[wxdaniel]

The eyewall is collapsing this could be a sign of RI?

 

[NCSNOW]

Between 930 and 940 mb looks like a good bet. I think we're going to see it hit as a cat 4 with 140 mph winds.

I'm thinking 915-925

 

[deltadog03]

I would agree with that. Either a very high cat 3 or "low" end cat 4 IMO

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

I'm thinking 915-925

Me too....too much time left to intensify....

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting graphic by Tomer Burg.

 

[Brick Tamland]

I'm thinking 915-925

Me too....too much time left to intensify....

Y'all really think it could get to cat 5? I hope not. That would be insane, though, and she is really going into beast mode now.

 

[Henry2326]

Y'all really think it could get to cat 5? I hope not. That would be insane, though, and she is really going into beast mode now.

Yep.....HWRF and NAM responded the same way for Michael....

 

[Ethan80963]