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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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compared to the 12z run...I don't usually compare a whole lot the 6 and 18z runs because we have fresh data on the 00z and 12z runs
but its WEST of the 12z run, and 14mb stronger than the 12z run *00z run is stronger**
 
I'd figured Irma will go on the east or west side of FL. It's very rare for a hurricane to literally go straight up the middle of FL.

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Even better way to view GOES-16 with 1 minute slices and you can set your time back hours or days if you want to. I have a gigabit fiber connection so I don't mind, but if you load 200 frames just know it may a take awhile unless you have a really fast connection.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate....1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Nonetheless, putting on lat/long and watching Irma back to about 5-6 hours ago -- she has wobbled here and there but has more or less gone due West in that time. It did look like she started moving NW as I alluded to earlier, but her eye has continued to just get smaller and tighter. Next hour or three should really provide a lot of clarification. In fact, I think her movement over the next 6 hours may give a lot of clarity. If she starts getting a Northward movement then we know to adjust the model tracks from there.
 
final evolution does not seem far off from 12z gfs with track, winds, placement in GA.
 
Timing of this ULL feature will basically decide what happens from what I'm looking at. Which can still change, but I do believe Euro + EPS have a good handle on it.
 
CMC is not horribly off from the GFS in regards to track.
 
So landfall is Everglades City more or less. What's odd is max wind gusts of 150mph but minimum pressure of 895mb? Either overdoing the pressure or the winds are underdone. 850s of 181mph makes more sense...
 
Pressure is likely overdone on the GFS runs, but still not a storm to mess around with by any means.
 
GFS has some 50-70kt wind gusts rolling through here. 40-55 or 60mph *from what I could tell* for NGA
 
Hm, looked at TWC radar and Irma looks to be trying to wobble NW off the Cuban coast..... can't get the GOES 16 site to load. :(
 
Storm5 said:
One bit of good news is flooding isn't going to be a huge issue up through Georgia into Tennessee
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Wind damage may be pretty severe, if models are correct! In NGa and W Sc! I would assume the stronger the storm at landfall, the worse these modeled winds could be up here? If it landfalls at 175mph instead of 155, could that lead to 80+ mph winds, instead of the 40-60 mph gusts shown?
 
looks like eye is jogging along or just offshore right now. the dive SW did stop quickly
 
ForsythSnow said:
They hug the GFS verbatim for 10m winds. It think they forgot the gusts exist too. Ryan Maue is about the only one in Atlanta who (though not on the news) expects bad winds.
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Channel 2 showed sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts 55-65 at 11pm. I don't normally watch them as they overhype but that sounds feasible. I prefer 11 Alive Storm Trackers.


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Looks like Cuban coast has tightened up the eye and the clouds have super cooled. If this stays along the coast or just inland it’s got a shot at getting under 900mb
 
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