Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[deltadog03]

Thanks for letting me do the show, really appreciated... Hopefully we can make this a regular thing going into the winter.

Did you see last punch thru the center? Prob 935 or 936mb adjusted

 

[Arcc]

Eh, I'm not sure I would call any scenario that allows Irma to reemerge out in open water a best case scenario in the case of the 00z Canadian. Granted, we wouldn't be talking about a Cat. 5 monster, but who knows for certain what Irma has the potential to do in the GOM if the environment/conditions are favorable enough for re-organization. Even moreso if Irma's core isn't completely disrupted crossing Cuba.
Case in point: Harvey. It went from a tropical wave to a Cat. 4 hurricane within 48hrs in the GOM.

That's just my two cents though.

The biggest key is how much the core would get disrupted. If it gets disrupted, it may do as Webb said on the chat tonight, never fully reorganize the core. I can name several off the top of my head, Georges and Ike, ect. However some have, Emily in '05 was one.

Now if it just weakens from friction and the core is still intact, that is where it would get interesting. For instance, a full hit on Hispanola or east Cuba is bad news for any TC. But the western side of Cuba is much lower and a big circulation would probably still feed off both sides.

 

[Arcc]

Big explosion of -80C tops banding around the eye. Here we go.

 

[weatherguy]

I know CMC does not have the best track verification, but CMC seems to be the first to set trend movements (at least a couple cases this year). It would not surprise me to see the Euro and GFS move some more westward over the next couple of days.

 

[accu35]

Is gefs out yet? Im at work

 

[Arcc]

Is gefs out yet? Im at work

Coming in now.

 

[Taylor]

Poor islands.

Coming in now.

Several of them look to be coming into the eastern Gulf at 120hrs.

 

[Arcc]

GEFS Mean is right on the Cuba coast.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GEFS is actually slightly east

 

[Arcc]

Over Key West at 132hr.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Alot of the outliers east and west were eliminated this run on the GEFS

 

[Arcc]

Alot of the outliers east and west were eliminated this run on the GEFS

Just dialed in.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

GEFS is actually slightly east

Alot of the outliers east and west were eliminated this run on the GEFS

What map you looking @ because I see more GEFS Members in the eastern gulf this run??

 

[Cary_Snow95]

What map you looking @ because I see more GEFS Members in the eastern gulf this run??

18z GEFS

0z

Trend east in the concentration of members

 

[Brent]

UKMET apparently has a hard right like the Euro where it could actually miss Florida to the east

Usually the UKMET/Euro are pretty good together, but we'll see what the Euro has at 0z

 

[Cary_Snow95]

UKMET apparently has a hard right like the Euro where it could actually miss Florida to the east

Usually the UKMET/Euro are pretty good together, but we'll see what the Euro has at 0z

I heard it went over Cuba as well

 

[Meteorologist1999]

UKMET apparently has a hard right like the Euro where it could actually miss Florida to the east

Usually the UKMET/Euro are pretty good together, but we'll see what the Euro has at 0z

How does it look for the Carolinas with UKMET??

 

[Cary_Snow95]

How does it look for the Carolinas with UKMET??

Try to limit the IMBY questions

 

[Brent]

yeah it landfalls in Cuba and only goes out 144 so it still ends before it passes S FL, but its moving due north like the Euro did at 12z

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Try to limit the IMBY questions

Its not IMBY, just trying to get info and compare trends. IMBY does not cover my area if I said Carolinas!