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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Yeah I just saw on HM twitter he posted the images. Looks to be close at 144. Seems the UKMET really has no idea wrt strength though. Same with the cmc, I've noticed it never initializes correctly which is frustrating in a sense.
 
the Euro missed Miami by about 20 miles at 12z so I'm curious if it holds east, albeit barely
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah and as you stated earlier a lot of the time the Ukie can show you some similar trends that will appear on the Euro
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apparently UKMET was also first to predict Matthew would ride the east coast of Florida last year while every other model was OTS

But it was pretty off with Harvey so I dunno, but if it agrees with the Euro(which did much better with Harvey) it has credibility for sure
 
It's just a hunch, but it wouldn't surprise me to see this trend further west and then come back east a good amount. Almost a usually thing with the GFS. The Euro is a decent marker for this idea as well
 
I honestly think east of Florida has a better chance than any meaningful Gulf track(west of the West Coast of Florida) but I could be wrong

Up the Peninsula obviously favored but alternate scenarios that would be my top one

The issue with the CMC is its so weak to start off and spends a lot of time over land which doesn't seem very realistic
 
0z GFS ENS spaghetti plot, again, there's more memebers going through extreme eastern GOM
38dc4990bfc41422f086eb4ca11dde0d.jpg


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The question is how soon Irma will make that north turn towards FL? We may not know until the "nowcasting" time period when Irma is along Cuba, or just above it. Either way, Irma will impact FL and on north.

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WeatherWatch said:
The question is how soon Irma will make that north turn towards FL? We may not know until the "nowcasting" time period when Irma is along Cuba, or just above it. Either way, Irma will impact FL and on north.

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How about do it ever make that north turn or have it pass by Florida when it does. Still lots of questions.
 
The 0Z Euro has Irma slightly south of its 12Z position on its early maps.
 
The 0Z Euro is taking it further south vs 12z Euro near the north coast of Cuba hour 96
 
The 0Z 120 hour Euro has it about 100 miles SW of its 12Z Euro position right in the middle of Cuba.
 
Now turning sharply right on 0Z Euro but it is headed for extreme E Gulf/SW FL rather than SE FL.
 
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