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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I can't help but think the ridge steering Katia and the ULL in the Carib are altering the steering flow more than the trof and the SW atm.
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Definitely has slowed down on IR, maybe slight bump NW. Wouldn't surprise me, strong hurricanes love to bounce around the islands.
 
My goodness, back to a Cat 5, looks like track has walked a bit west (I admit, I just Googled the coordinates from the Forecast Disco ... Tifton to Huntsville?).

Puts Atlanta metro even more on the right side of the circulation.
 
almost parallels to Tampa yikes

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so.
 
GOES-16 updates much faster if someone is just looking at the :15 and :45 floater. The most recent GOES-16 does look like it started moving north, but because the eye is continuing to shrink it is hard to say if it is actually pulling NW or just the eye getting smaller and wobbling toward what looks like NW. Look at the 50 image loop and zoom in and you can see it.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband14.html
 
La Plata said:
GOES-16 updates much faster if someone is just looking at the :15 and :45 floater. The most recent GOES-16 does look like it started moving north, but because the eye is continuing to shrink it is hard to say if it is actually pulling NW or just the eye getting smaller and wobbling toward what looks like NW. Look at the 50 image loop and zoom in and you can see it.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband14.html
Click to expand...

I love that site and the Goes 16. Definitly a much improved tool.
 
Well I wasn't on the website, lol.

And yeesh...if that track verifies I hope my aunt and step uncle leave tonight. They said they might stay and go to a hurricane shelter, but this is now looking worse for Tampa then it does for Miami, and they're in Bradenton, which is close.
 
There was a lot of focus -- rightfully so -- for the areas along the Florida east coast the past couple of days ... I REALLY hope the folks on the Florida west coast have been paying attention.

--30--
 
Did the west coast of Florida even prepare for this? All the focus seemed to be on the east side and now it looks like they will miss the brunt of it?
 
MBell said:
Did the west coast of Florida even prepare for this? All the focus seemed to be on the east side and now it looks like they will miss the brunt of it?
Click to expand...

Well they're going to now...it looks like they've been caught with their pants down...wouldn't be shocked if a lot of the Florida gulf coast issues mandatory evacuations tomorrow.
 
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