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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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just saw a model verification elsewhere, the Euro has been the best, followed by the UKMET, then the CMC, then the GFS lol, that's right even the CMC has beat the GFS
 
irma_ukmet00z0902.jpg
 
As a Georgian, I'm feeling quite a bit better than I've felt in awhile! These 1st 3 of the big 4 0Z models are all encouraging. Please, King, be nice to me. :)

Also, I see that the NHC day 5 position, though ominous since it is right here, weakened her to a 2 due to shear. I wasn't aware of this possibility til now.
 
Brent said:
irma_ukmet00z0902.jpg
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While the NHC did a nice job early on staying on the southwestern end of the guidance envelope w/ Irma in the central Atlantic, the fact that they gave the GFS any weight there really hurt their forecasts relative to the ECMWF. The GFS' convective parameterization scheme leads to the model breaking down subtropical ridges more quickly than forecast especially in the eastern MDR. The GFS however may become more competitive relative to other guidance in the western Atlantic given that the globals are not properly handling Irma's Rossby penetration depth even though it still may not be the best model...
 
hmon_mslp_uv850_11L_30.png

HMON holding serve pretty strong landfall on the SE portion of Florida and then back out briefly before running into GA coastline between Brunswick and Savannah as a still pretty strong cat 3 Hurricane roughly
 
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Should be interesting to see how Irma interacts with Hispaniola over the next 24-36 hours. While Irma won't directly pass over the island, it may end up being close enough that downsloping off the high terrain (that's in excess of 10,000 feet in places) will cause relatively less buoyant, drier, adiabatically compressed air to potentially become entrained Irma's circulation and/or the southern semi-circle of the tropical cyclone. Normally, this wouldn't negatively impact a significantly weaker tropical cyclone in a similar location, but given how broad Irma's inflow is and that it's a category 5 hurricane, if conditions become even a little less than perfect this can lead to weakening, but Irma will still be a powerful TC...
 
Didn't the UKMET nail Matthew when the other models were all over the place even up until under 20 hours? Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
Didn't the UKMET nail Matthew when the other models were all over the place even up until under 20 hours? Correct me if I'm wrong.
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Dunno about 20 hours but definitely 4 days out it did. 4 days out the spaghetti plot had Matthew OTS and the UKMET riding the EC of FL
 
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Finally weakening!!



Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 180 mph (290 km/h) with
higher gusts.
 
Fairly inclined to believe this turns due north in roughly 72 hours. Let's just see how fast west it can get.
 
The Euro would be a bad deal for Florida. Landfall around Miami and the eye rides inland up the eastern Florida coast. Looks like the ensemble mean is up the spine of Florida.
 
So far the 6Z GFS looks about identical to the 0Z runs. Western side in SE FL. Looks like the eye stays offshore.
 
I don't know if hwrf been mentioned but 0Z run stays off Florida coast and rides up to make landfall in Charleston.

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hwrf-p_mslp_wind_11L_42.png
 
GFS a little west this AM
 
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