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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Too early to be declaring anything. If the shortwave goes bye bye, an Ike like track is VERY much on the table.
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From what I can see, no models even hint at this. But Levi raised my eyebrow saying how hard that feature was to predict. Very concerning comment for my neck of the woods. Esp since no models actually show the feature dissipating. Hopefully I'm paranoid (I mean, vigilant) for nothing.
 
An ERC is usually a good thing but wasn't Irma strengthening anyway this morning despite it or just staying pat?
 
While Irma hasn't intensified much the past few hours, Irma's outer eyewall has already become more dominant and is slowly choking off the inner one. We're probably going to see a substantial intensification boost once this is complete given the environment it's heading into
recon_AF309-0311A-IRMA_timeseries.png
 
Storm5 said:
Lots of NW inland tracks after landfall on the 12z gefs
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ForsythSnow said:
That's coming from Levi too. That makes it even more scary. I can see where he is coming from about the shortwave. If that goes poof, we will see a Gulf storm, no doubt. However, if it is a monster it should pull north... into Florida or Louisiana before it can make it to Texas due to pure intensity .
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Yeah the first s/w is the exit by sea s/w. That door is closing. The second one is the ULL s/w that will capture and tug it NE then NW or something like that unto shore. We know how hard it is predict a strong ULL, much less a weak diffuse one.
 
I deleted the post I put about the live feed of chasers in boat. Apparently I fell for a gimmick, the feed was actually a video that was over 4 yrs old. I'm better off not posting and keep to just watching lol
 
12Z HMON looks like it will miss Cuba as well. Very similar to GFS in terms of placement, maybe little further West, at the end of it's run.

HMON
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GFS
GFS_126.png
 
Yeah, it's going to take a lot of changes to get this over towards Texas. Even "IF" it got into the Gulf we'd likely see it pushed to the East.. opening doors for quite the tornado threat into parts of GA, SC, NC.
 
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
 
Shawn said:
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
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Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
 
Shawn said:
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
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Honestly probably not, it'll just make the hurricane harder to forecast but I do remember with one winter storm that we were tracking that when it was still in the medium range there was a high pressure that went poof and it changed everything with the wintry forecast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
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Okay, so basically the strength and speed is going to be a problem... seems even 24 hours out there are surprises, from previous experience.

This hurricane is going to be a nightmare for emergency management!!!
 
Waiting on Webber to come on with a new Kermit meme!!! :)
This is looking bad for all of the SE with coastal areas, and inland areas as well! If I was in GA,SC,NC, I'd be starting to think about some planning and preparation now! It's only 5-7 days away from affecting some of these areas, especially FL!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
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Seems correct. He specifically told me on Twitter WGOM being "highly unlikely" (my words) is "correct" (his words).
 
Levi's server is getting annihilated from Irma forecasts already and we aren't even in the true "hype stage" yet.

He has a patron link on the site, that helps him keep the server going etc.. fwiw.
 
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