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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The long term estimated motion is still at 260 at 12 kt. ASCAT data indicated that TS force wind field has expanded. The GFS may not be over done after all with Irma's overall diameter.

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Here is the graphic of the wind field as I mentioned that Irma's wind field is expanding.
21c0fd8eabb7bc848e07c1f955db1c4d.jpg


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From the last model runs shown only "good" news is that Irma would be weakening at landfall, which is a good trend... I do have concerns with some of the GOM tracks ans Mid Sept systems that hit pandhandle tend to "rabbit" up GA/AL line with widespread wind damage.. (Eloise 75, Opal 95) and same for Hugo ref Metro Charlotte
 
Storm5 said:
The 18z gefs ensembles should be fun

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I don't know about your definition of fun but the mean is 100 miles further west, riding up the FL east coast just east of the 12Z EPS mean. So, this run implies a greater FL and a much greater E GOM threat vs the last 3 GEFS runs. Again, sorry Phil, I'm not picking on you. I'm only telling you what I see. ;)
 
I know the JMA isn't one of the best models, but it brings Irma up through the eastern GOM and making landfall over the FL panhandle.

I'm so ready to get to the time of where we'll know Irma will make landfall officially. If Irma does indeed make landfall.


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Referencing what Webber said occurs with the GEFS at times, so many of the 18Z members are awfully close together going up/near FL...almost as if they're not independent runs even though we know they are.
 
GaWx said:
Referencing what Webber said occurs with the GEFS at times, so many of the 18Z members are awfully close together going up/near FL...almost as if they're not independent runs even though we know they are.
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Oh man yes they are very close. Us here in GA and SC are going to see some crazy members for oue areas.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png
 
Well, if Irma comes up right through FL (even the west side of FL) everyone across the SE will experience the effects of Irma pretty much. I'm sure we'll all hate that.

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Even if Irma brushes the coast, the hurricane force will extent out aboit 75-100 miles away from the center. So the beaches will most likely feel the effects
 
accu35 said:
Even if Irma brushes the coast, the hurricane force will extent out aboit 75-100 miles away from the center. So the beaches will most likely feel the effects
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Oh yeah sure enough, also the surf is going to be insane. The WaveWatchIII model is showing surf/swells 20-50' possibly higher. At least 15-30' waves closer to shore and 40-50+' further offshore.


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Slightly off topic but I work for a top 20 trucking company. We always get highly involved running FEMA freight to affected areas. We have never had Bid requests pre-Hurricane but just got a large bid request to stage in Southenn GA and Jacksonville. I think it echos the concern of many on the board.
 
I normally don't get involved in tropical chats -- winter snows in North Georgia is my thing -- but this system has my attention. Living just west of Lake Lanier and having spent years living on the Georgia coast, some of the model outputs are just frightening to watch in that regard. Of course, they're model outputs, and we're eight days out :).

Will be lurking and learning as much as I can, and plan to donate as soon as I am able. Thanks all in advance for your guidance, knowledge and insight. Let's stay safe.

Mods: Please move to banter if so desired and my apologizes for interrupting the discussion flow.

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bud006 said:
I normally don't get involved in tropical chats -- winter snows in North Georgia is my thing -- but this system has my attention. Living just west of Lake Lanier and having spent years living on the Georgia coast, some of the model outputs are just frightening to watch in that regard. Of course, they're model outputs, and we're eight days out :).

Will be lurking and learning as much as I can, and plan to donate as soon as I am able. Thanks all in advance for your guidance, knowledge and insight. Let's stay safe.

Mods: Please move to banter if so desired and my apologizes for interrupting the discussion flow.

--30--
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It's fine. Welcome to the board! Nice to see someone near my area as well!:)
 
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