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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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deltadog03 said:
That weakness looks rather anemic. Is there no trof on this run over the SE like before at H5?
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The trough gets out of dodge well before it could do anything to influence Irma vs previous runs.m No cutoff or anything left. Scoots right out.
 
Shawn said:
I thought they were speaking about the ridge being stronger not so much the storm? Which would make sense because of the Euro's track record at H5 / consistency keeping that ridge strong.
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well at least yesterday they were saying the two were related... stronger ridge and stronger hurricane on the Euro vs. weaker on both on the GFS

and yeah that trough sure goes poof, that seems to be a trend that it goes away sooner. I'm still confused how it turns north before FL though, I mean I see the heights falling but it's not that impressive. If this is like Floyd which it pretty much is on the Euro well Floyd did that turn north with an obvious trough which this doesn't have
 
I can see why, the models have continued to shift more south and westward. I believe the GFS is falling in line with the Euro as well. Each run is moving it closer to what the Euro is depicting thus far. Still have a few more days to get a true sense of where things stand though. That last second NW turn is bugging heck out of me. I still don't see anything that would cause it to just up and turn to the NW like that.
 
While we wait for frames that matter to us... here so far:

 
We aren't going to learn much from this.. as it severely diverges after day 7, as expected.. but the cluster within day 7 shows we aren't far from being able to figure something by Monday night or so.

eps_cyclone_atlantic_41.png


Edit: I can say vs 12z EPS, it's closer to the coast
 
Man, those are very narrowly clustered together now. Track cone is really shrinking there. I think consensus thus far is building to make this a SE landfall. Wouldn't climo suggest, based on what we see now, this would be more of a S. FLA. or C. FLA. hit?
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Man, those are very narrowly clustered together now. Track cone is really shrinking there. I think consensus thus far is building to make this a SE landfall. Wouldn't climo suggest, based on what we see now, this would be more of a S. FL. hit?
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With a trough involved, a typhoon greatly affecting h5 who knows. This last euro run literally sent the trough out so fast.. that it was never a chance for the storm to be affected by it. Previous runs had a cutoff low in the South. It's very back and forth and very hard to forecast.

I think with that EPS we can likely assume the Northern Leewards need to go ahead and prepare in case.
 
With that euro op run tonight **if** right, who knows. But I'm skeptical of a sharp turn NW then N that quick. The weakness is pretty much non existent
 
Brent said:
Interesting they all go north and none go to the Gulf
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Hopefully Webber can enlighten us with more detail tomorrow. I should have added to my previous post that things are looking scarier per 00z EPS for the OBX areas... still a ways to go though. I think just in case i'll order some batteries and a radio tomorrow. Been needing them anyway.. and while the latest 00z solution isn't any more likely than the GFS out to sea solution, better to have and not need!
 
Shawn said:
Hopefully Webber can enlighten us with more detail tomorrow. I should have added to my previous post that things are looking scarier per 00z EPS for the OBX areas... still a ways to go though. I think just in case i'll order some batteries and a radio tomorrow. Been needing them anyway.. and while the latest 00z solution isn't any more likely than the GFS out to sea solution, better to have and not need!
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The GFS was not OTS, it barely missed the OBX and hit MD/DE/NJ
 
Shawn said:
With a trough involved, a typhoon greatly affecting h5 who knows. This last euro run literally sent the trough out so fast.. that it was never a chance for the storm to be affected by it. Previous runs had a cutoff low in the South. It's very back and forth and very hard to forecast.

I think with that EPS we can likely assume the Northern Leewards need to go ahead and prepare in case.
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Yep, that was close for those folks in the N. Leewards. Very curious to see how the future model runs keep responding to that last minute change of direction to the NW. Also, if the trough keeps eroding as fast as the Euro is depicting .
 
Brent said:
The GFS was not OTS, it barely missed the OBX and hit MD/DE/NJ
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They're all bleeding together in my brain currently. Yeah there were two OP runs in a row that hit up there today. 18 and 00
 
and it shifted west at 0z(from NYC down to MD/DE) so we'll have to see if that trend continues
 
West and further south, i'm betting we see that trend continue on the 06z, and throughout rest of the day.
 
Brent said:
well at least yesterday they were saying the two were related... stronger ridge and stronger hurricane on the Euro vs. weaker on both on the GFS

and yeah that trough sure goes poof, that seems to be a trend that it goes away sooner. I'm still confused how it turns north before FL though, I mean I see the heights falling but it's not that impressive. If this is like Floyd which it pretty much is on the Euro well Floyd did that turn north with an obvious trough which this doesn't have
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Probably what Feed Gossage told me years ago when we were discussing Dean and why it had no chance of moving north. He explained in simple terms that with a very intense hurricane the "hot" outflow can pump a strong Ridge to the cyclones north and thus intensify it.

Using that thinking along with the already trough happy models is why I still think Florida is in the cross hairs.
 
If this was a fish the euro would have sniffed it out by now.


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