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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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922 with sights on part of SC/NC. hm
 
Jeeze. Looks like landfall happening around or slightly south of Myrtle Beach on fast maps.

In between CHS/MYR i think
 
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Doesn't really matter exact landfall point though.. the storm is big enough it'd be as bad as Hugo or worse.. Hugo did this same thing hitting JUST north of downtown CHS.
 
Here's a good map of landfall point. I still am a bit confused on what caused the sharp NW turn?

here.png
 
What is causing it to make that sharp turn to the Northwest? I know the CMC showed something pretty similar. Could it be ULL in the Midwest? Looked like all avenues were blocked, and only way it could/should be able to go was west.
 
It looks like the blocking ridge to the north slides east, so Irma grows NW into the weakness. You can see the heights dissipate NW of it. On the 00z Euro Irma follows pretty much the same exact trajectory as the 12z Euro showed, only slightly more west this run.
 
EPS IRMA modeling coming out now, will have soon.. will wait for the frames.

And looks like every single member initialized the storm too weak vs current pressure analysis.
 
Shawn said:
EPS IRMA modeling coming out now, will have soon.. will wait for the frames.

And looks like every single member initialized the storm too weak vs current pressure analysis.
Click to expand...
I think Euro has been doing that every run so far. Initializing it weaker that what is actually happening.
 
I think the saying is, that a stronger storm will turn out to sea/take a more northern path than a weaker one... at least usually. but so far the EPS is tightly clustered. Still waiting on frames that matter for us.
 
I don't know it that rings true or not. But, we definitely DO NOT want another Hugo around these parts! She was heading straight for Florida, and put the brakes on and turned NW. I know we are gonna have fluidity with these runs over next few days. So, just hoping for the best here.
 
Oh boy, there is less spread on this EPS run.. than the previous.. lots of sub 940s starting to show up. Almost to the time-frame.. I'm so tired! lol
 
What's interesting is the NHC has been hugging the south side of the forecast models because of a "stronger" solution on the Euro... so its a little confusing the weaker vs. stronger path thing...
 
Thanks for the pbp. That looks scary. That weakness isn't much either. This could still plow through Florida and ride the spine up or get over eastern gom. Obviously it could brush the east coast and slam the Carolinas. Wouldn't take much to keep this chugging WNW.
 
Brent said:
What's interesting is the NHC has been hugging the south side of the forecast models because of a "stronger" solution on the Euro... so its a little confusing the weaker vs. stronger path thing...
Click to expand...
I thought they were speaking about the ridge being stronger not so much the storm? Which would make sense because of the Euro's track record at H5 / consistency keeping that ridge strong.
 
That weakness looks rather anemic. Is there no trof on this run over the SE like before at H5?
 
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