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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Very few hits on the EPS in fact the hits are less than the 12z run. the majority all turn NE and are offshore this run
b097554ce7919521455adbff726ece4c.jpg


As you can see the ensemble mean is well east of the OP
87f35f895ef5790723216477ad8d81ce.jpg


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Storm5 said:
Very few hits on the EPS in fact the hits are less than the 12z run. the majority all turn NE and are offshore this run
b097554ce7919521455adbff726ece4c.jpg


As you can see the ensemble mean is well east of the OP
87f35f895ef5790723216477ad8d81ce.jpg


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The EPS last second turn OTS is relying on a minute short wave over Atlantic Canada that's in the process of leaving by the time Irma reaches the southeastern us. I wouldn't feel comfortable about this solution even at face value given how small the weakness is in the model, the large subtropical ridge building to the north over southeast Canada, current trends in guidance regarding Sanvu's recurvature, & the fact that there's a broad upper level trough/ULL over the northern gulf coast that is left behind by our trough this upcoming week, which could feasibly capture Irma and steer it towards the US coastline... Even if this turned OTS away from the SE US as the EPS suggests, it would be agonizingly slow to do so given how the steering flow breaks down after day 7...
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Irma is looking like the classic cape Verde buzzsaw this morning with the eye clearing out. The euro has a classic carolinas look with the trough digging into the Pacific nw and a height response over the NE and atlantic, if you look at Isabel, Fran, and Hugo the h5 look isn't that dissimilar to what the euro has at days 8-10 here. Not saying that will happen just pointing out similarities. This storm needs to be fast like the gfs is showing or a slower east coast trough exit for the ots solution.

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SD said:
Irma is looking like the classic cape Verde buzzsaw this morning with the eye clearing out. The euro has a classic carolinas look with the trough digging into the Pacific nw and a height response over the NE and atlantic, if you look at Isabel, Fran, and Hugo the h5 look isn't that dissimilar to what the euro has at days 8-10 here. Not saying that will happen just pointing out similarities. This storm needs to be fast like the gfs is showing or a slower east coast trough exit for the ots solution.

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I agree! With a slower solution there is nothing really to steer it ots.


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Storm5 said:
The fun part is there is ZERO consistency within the OP runs and the ensembles

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You said that perfectly. The models are completely against their operational runs, the EPS OTS while the Euro itself is into SC, and the GEFS further south than the NE hit on the main run. Once we see consistency, we can have a better idea.
 
I think we will have a first decent initial idea on where Irma will go once we see how much latitude it loses during its interaction with a tutt to the northeast and some of the smaller scale details in the long wave pattern that will probably take 3-4 more days to resolve... We likely won't know if this is a very legitimate threat to hit the SE US until the middle portions of this week.
 
Good morning everyone! Just looking at a few things from the runs last night, yall are right, there is no consistency at all btwn the ops and there members.. There really is many options and all are on the table. I think the GOM option is lower than OTS option at this point. I think the OTS option is low at this point as well.*again, you all know this can change VERY quickly* The WSW movement will be very telling IMHO. If this can stay a bit lower in Latitude, its going to take a decent trof to pull this out and miss the US, as of now and IMHO. I am curious to see if the trof can show back up over the SE (that ULL feature?") That would help "protect" the SE and push Irma out to sea a bit. Long story short, I think the best areas *as of now* would be Florida to the Carolinas and it could be a big Hit.
 
Shawn said:
I have thrown together an Irma site with various maps, satellite, intensity forecasts in one place that is mobile/device friendly.
Let me know if you have suggestions or additions I should put on there.

http://southernwx.com/irma/
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Awesome! Exactly what I was looking for with Harvey! Thanks! This is a great resource! Should make it a member only feature to entice guests lol!


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Webberweather53 said:
I think we will have a first decent initial idea on where Irma will go once we see how much latitude it loses during its interaction with a tutt to the northeast and some of the smaller scale details in the long wave pattern that will probably take 3-4 more days to resolve... We likely won't know if this is a very legitimate threat to hit the SE US until the middle portions of this week.
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I agree! The WSW movement will be super telling. IMHO the 1 consistent thing is that the trof is not super strong where its a given its going to pull this up and out. I think if this gets "buried" IE close to the southern bahamas its going to be very tough NOT to hit on the SE US
 
Storm5 said:
Ots in the traditional sense does not seem likely with the ridge placement . A U.S. approach that stays offshore is very possible however depending on trough and storm speed as mentioned above.

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Agreed. It also depends on where the storm is in relation to the subtropical ridge, if it gets north of the subtropical ridge axis even with blocking to the north it can recurve out to sea underneath south-southwesterly low level flow,it would just take its sweet time doing so... Even if a weakness develops to its northeast and gives this a route out to sea it's entirely possible that an upper level trough gets left behind over the northern gulf coast and provides an even bigger weakness to the west-northwest underneath the Rex block over southeastern Canada and steers it into the us coast anyway. At a minimum I think we can expect this to be a close call, recurvature will probably take a lot of time if it occurs, & everyone along the SE us coast should expect a very high rip current risk over the coming few weeks...
 
Someone help me out. Where is the chat that y'all kept having during Harvey? Is it accessible from tapatalk?! I kept going to the chat on here (app) and it was just me and one other person lol.


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