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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Shawn said:
Actually looking at real frames, looks like it's gonna scrape/miss the majority of SC as it starts hooking to a NE motion off the coast!
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Yep its acually moving turning NE at the very end im not sure it would have hit anything that run

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Taylor said:
Most tropical models favor the GFS track through 132hrs. They either have it passing through, or north of the 20N/60W crosshair. The EURO, CMC, and HWRF pass it several degrees south of 20N at the same time.
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Back on this subject because it is a very noticeable, and significant difference between models over the next 132 hours. But, you can see that the last 4 runs of the GFS, and tropical models have trended south closer toward the EURO, CMC, and HWRF.

gfstrend.gif


tropicaltrend.gif
 
Can anyone generate an old/analog map or whatever based off this? This is all I really can come across... and the setup is different of course.. but I'd like to compare and not sure of all the websites to use to do it: 00z 21 September 1989

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accu35 said:
Lol, i got ya man. Im from there also. I hope this bugger goes OTS for anyone sake
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Just purely for the sake of hypothetical and clinical discussion ... Can you imagine the carnage if a 920 came in say at Deerfield Beach and cruised the peninsula and exited around Jax to St. Mary's at say, perhaps a 960? Take that last run of the Euro a couple hundred or less miles west ... o_O
Just for thought ...
 
DustinWX said:
What do you base the gulf idea on?
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Im not saying it will enter the gulf, but the trend over the last few days from the euro/eps has been hovering and camped around that general area. Gfs has been all over. I hope its fish for sure, but this could be a scary situation if this south trend continues
 
Arcc said:
Not on that run it isn't. ULL providing the weakness and with the ridge in that position, it would drive that joker inland.
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Im talking about the end solution not that run . Speed of the system , trough and ACTUAL ridge strength will obviously play a roll . But a final offshore solution is very possible

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Storm5 said:
Im talking about the end solution not that run . Speed of the system , trough and ACTUAL ridge strength will obviously play a roll . But a final offshore solution is very possible

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I know, but I don't see a way the end solution of that run is close to staying offshore unless the model would do something quirky. That run would probably plow Irma right into the SC/NC border, possibly the GA/SC border depending on how much that ULL grabs it.
 
Euro run was very scary for SC and NC. Don't like this trend at all.
 
The models have trended towards a less dynamic extratropical transition of Sanvu in the western Pacific which means the downstream rossby wave packet is weaker over North America >>> ridge builds in faster >>> Irma a bigger threat to the se us
 
Lol his cone is massive !!!! How csn anyone take that seriously .
78e64ba454e6691e13607a31f63991b9.jpg


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Shawn said:
Can anyone generate an old/analog map or whatever based off this? This is all I really can come across... and the setup is different of course.. but I'd like to compare and not sure of all the websites to use to do it: 00z 21 September 1989

image.png
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I found a 500mb map of that storm
Also, check this out
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo
(For comparison purposes only)
3cdb9cf35012b9fe5a23a8040103150b.jpg


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WeatherWatch said:
I found a 500mb map of that storm
Also, check this out
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo
(For comparison purposes only)
3cdb9cf35012b9fe5a23a8040103150b.jpg


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Thanks for posting. In Irma's case, there isn't the real strong upper high progged to be centered in the NE US though a new high may rebuild in there. Instead, the strongest nearby upper high looks to be in or near the Bermuda high position (somewhere offshore), thus favoring a more northward movement should Irma be near the Carolinas rather than the NW movement of Hugo based on projections as of now. Now, if Irma were to be approaching, say, S FL, then obviously it could easily be moving NW or even WNW on its approach down there.

Of course, since this is still 9+ days away, the entire progged pattern could end up verifying far differently.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol his cone is massive !!!! How csn anyone take that seriously .
78e64ba454e6691e13607a31f63991b9.jpg


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That's what she said!
Hugo came into the SC coast on a WNW trajectory and made an almost straight right hand turn to the North at about CAE! It was rough, but it was in September and it was very cool the week after, just off the top of my head! 10 days without power, sucked!
 
Storm5 said:
Through day 8 lots of eps members start turning north
89b7aaee6e890a85bfb04617336bc407.jpg


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Yeah if any thing it's NE of the op and has shifted NE of the 0z EPS.... still so much time and so many options
 
Really hope it keeps curving to the NE, but a lot of those tracks are headed right for SC and NC.
 
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