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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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WeatherWatch said:
12z GFS has the trough dissipating as Irma is moving towards the EC. With that being said, the track of what the GFS is putting for Irma is off. Also, with the trough dissipating, this is opening the doors for Irma to hit anywhere from the SE to the north.
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Its also a huge door to move offshore to the north with the system being hat strong its gonna feel the weakness regardless if the trough is weakening

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pcbjr said:
Not going to dignify it with maps and pictures yet, but JB is hyping the next 2 weeks in our collective neck of the woods.
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I think all that needs to be said is that it may be an active couple of weeks and leave it at that...LOL!
 
Storm5 said:
Its also a huge door to move offshore to the north with the system being hat strong its gonna feel the weakness regardless if the trough is weakening

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Basically without getting too much into it, there's a cutoff about to happen on that animation, heights building to the North, and likely a NE hit somewhere on further frames.

Either way, still too early!
 
Shawn said:
Basically without getting too much into it, there's a cutoff about to happen on that animation, heights building to the North, and likely a NE hit somewhere on further frames.

Either way, still too early!
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Here is also a massive troug over eastern canada moving east whih will have impacts on the ridge.

As long as we keep it offshore and it gets north of the carolinas , who cares affer that . The NE can deal with it

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Storm5 said:
Here is also a massive troug over eastern canada moving east whih will have impacts on the ridge.

As long as we keep it offshore and it gets north of the carolinas , who cares affer that . The NE can deal with it

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Someone is feeling a little salty today.
 
metwannabe said:
Early on Euro is much stronger and further south with the Atlantic ridge which not only results in it's more southern track (within 5 days) but is also faster then other modeling, by the weekend we should really start to have an idea if this is going to be a threat to the Islands or not which in turn will give us a better idea of potential US threat
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metwannabe said:
Yeah generally that is the case but this seems to be a unique situation with the somewhat rare SW movement due to that ridge....
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It's a pretty ominous sign when even a category 3-4 hurricane can't gain latitude in the eastern Atlantic...
 
whatalife said:
Someone is feeling a little salty today.
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No salt here . There is just this feeling in the air that people are stupid enough to want a direct hit . Especially after seeing Harvey and the damage that bad boy left behind. The best solution would be it stays offshore . The most scary solution is it makes it into the gulf and impacts the areas hit by harvey. The most painful solution is a carolina state line landfall that gives JHS sinking air on the west side with partly cloudy skies and no rain

The bitching would be unreal

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Storm5 said:
No salt here . There is just this feeling in the air that people are stupid enough to want a direct hit . Especially after seeing Harvey and the damage that bad boy left behind. The best solution would be it stays offshore . The most scary solution is it makes it into the gulf and impacts the areas hit by harvey. The most painful solution is a carolina state line landfall that gives JHS sinking air on the west side with partly cloudy skies and no rain

The bitching would be unreal

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I want a direct hit, Cat 5 with live stream of the chaser going airborne.
 
Storm5 said:
No salt here . There is just this feeling in the air that people are stupid enough to want a direct hit . Especially after seeing Harvey and the damage that bad boy left behind. The best solution would be it stays offshore . The most scary solution is it makes it into the gulf and impacts the areas hit by harvey. The most painful solution is a carolina state line landfall that gives JHS sinking air on the west side with partly cloudy skies and no rain

The bitching would be unreal

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Hey easy there cowboy (still taking the meds? lol), not sure if you are referring to twitter crap or on here but although I have this queasy feeling in my gut (which could be too many jalapenos haha) or others are pointing out how it could impact the east coast doesn't mean anyone wants it. There are always a few idiots who wish those things but let's not open that can.... not yet.
 
Just an interesting tidbit of information to keep in mind when you're looking at these very piss-poor initializations of Irma from the Euro.
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Yeah, I totally understand that this is the eastern Atlantic and TCs here are small and we shouldn't expect coarse global models to initialize their true intensities properly, but even still, I think there's no excuse for coarser global models to initialize Irma better than the Euro which has a 9km resolution, the highest of any global NWP model. These large discrepancies in short term intensity and initialization will have profound impacts on Irma's long term behavior.

1007mb tropical storm? Not even close...
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Webberweather53 said:
Just an interesting tidbit of information to keep in mind when you're looking at these very piss-poor initializations of Irma from the Euro.
View attachment 1005

Yeah, I totally understand that this is the eastern Atlantic and TCs here are small and we shouldn't expect coarse global models to initialize their true intensities properly, but even still, I think there's no excuse for coarser global models to initialize Irma better than the Euro which has a 9km resolution, the highest of any global NWP model. These large discrepancies in short term intensity and initialization will have profound impacts on Irma's long term behavior.

1007mb tropical storm? Not even close...
View attachment 1006


View attachment 1007

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How does this impact how the Euro handles the track? Seems Euro handles 500 mb setup better but can it be trusted with such poor initialization? Obviously NHC puts a lot of weight in the Euro track guidance....
 
metwannabe said:
How does this impact how the Euro handles the track? Seems Euro handles 500 mb setup better but can it be trusted with such poor initialization? Obviously NHC puts a lot of weight in the Euro track guidance....
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Im the wrong one to respond but i wouldnt tbink poor initialization of the system has much impact on how the model handles the 500mb pattern

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metwannabe said:
And if he doesn't show up he's banned! ;)
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Haha im not worried about eric not showing up unlike others who agree to 8pm central and then dont show. I would love to post the conversation leading up the show but i wont out of privacy for the one who didnt show up

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