Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[ForsythSnow]

Umm unfortunately I 2nd this....

I sadly 3rd... . I think this will be cat 5 Irma. It's growing fast and has the potential.

 

[Tarheel1]

Umm unfortunately I 2nd this....

I'll be near Daytona until Tuesday! Surf should be up!?

 

[whatalife]

This storm is getting itself together in a hurry. Scary to think where this one will head.


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[ForsythSnow]

If you think about it, Irma is quite small at the moment, so it was able to get together quickly. It does sort of remind me of Ike, where it blew up out of nowhere fast. If it stays small for the next day or two, it can really ramp up. However, I expert Irma to grow in size, weaken some, then strengthen again.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with.

 

[Jesse]

Uhhh... that's not good.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12">@EricBlake12</a> mentioned in the 11am NHC discussion, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> so far has verified stronger and farther south than short-term model forecasts: <a href="https://t.co/C2t33ZCqVX">pic.twitter.com/C2t33ZCqVX</a></p>&mdash; Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) <a href="">August 31, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Brick Tamland]

Read on the other board HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Read on the other board HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5.

Yeah and I have also heard that it has nailed Irma so far. It forecasted pressures perfectly thus far

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12z GFS adjusting slightly south this run

 

[Tarheel1]

12z GFS adjusting slightly south this run

Moving toward Euro!

 

[Weatherlover92]

One notable difference with the 12z GFS versus 6z is it's not as pronounced with the other TC in the GOM, it doesn't really do much with it.

EDIT: There's also another tropical system behind Irma well to the SE of it.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I just noticed a second storm behind Irma on this run lol

 

[Cary_Snow95]

One notable difference with the 12z GFS versus 6z is it's not as pronounced with the other TC in the GOM, it doesn't really do much with it.

EDIT: There's also another tropical system behind Irma well to the SE of it.

Lol we both saw that at the same time!!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This run is going to be OTS it appears

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12z CMC .. Lines up closer to the Euro this run

 

[Shawn]

One Question to everyone, Which models tends to do the best in 500 Mb Setups and with the WAR???

I'm not sure what you mean by "WAR" but 500mb setup is usually handled well by the Euro. With that said, all models have their weaknesses in certain setups, and it's never a sure thing. Off 500mb alone, I'd always put money on Euro though.

 

[Weatherlover92]

I'm not sure what you mean by "WAR" but 500mb setup is usually handled well by the Euro. With that said, all models have their weaknesses in certain setups, and it's never a sure thing. Off 500mb alone, I'd always put money on Euro though.

I think it's an acronym for Western Atlantic Ridge.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Bermuda is about to take a beating from Irma.

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS has been all over the place handling the 500mb set up.... it continues to show that ULL but differing times, locations, etc. CMC very Euro'ish this run so let's see if the Euro continues it's persistent track or bends one way or the other. Long, long..... long way to go with this one and OTS is still a possibility.

 

[Tarheel1]

We will have to see if the good DR sticks to its guns here in a bit, on the more Southerly track?