• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
All of this JB talk, whether positive or negative, is likely what he desires. Someone like him wants anything but to be ignored. Negative publicity is better than no publicity in this case. The number of internet based discussions about him over the last 20 years or so has likely far exceeded any other pro met by a wide margin with perhaps deeeeeeeeeteeeeeeeeee in 2nd! I'd say he's likely quite content to say the least.
 
GaWx said:
All of this JB talk, whether positive or negative, is likely what he desires. Someone like him wants anything but to be ignored. Negative publicity is better than no publicity in this case. The number of internet based discussions about him over the last 20 years or so has likely far exceeded any other pro met by a wide margin with perhaps deeeeeeeeeteeeeeeeeee in 2nd! I'd say he's likely quite content to say the least.
Click to expand...
I agree with you larry. First off you are 100 percent correct ANY publicity is good publicity for a business.

Your words about him not wanting to be ignored are spot on !

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
I see chuck5 made a call to the NHC requesting more explanation as to why they decided to stay on the south side of guidance...

An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.
 
Any ideas on how a slightly weaker system than initially forecasted at this point could affect the path? I would think it could be pulled less north due to weaker intensity at the moment.
 
145645_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Any ideas on how a slightly weaker system than initially forecasted at this point could affect the path? I would think it could be pulled less north due to weaker intensity at the moment.
Click to expand...
About a dozen post up Webb touched on this
 
Taylor said:
North Carolina is going to get popped.
Click to expand...
I would ask that you elaborate but since we aren't like those other places I'll let it ride.... however, if NC in fact does get "popped" as you say you will be banned for life. Lol... Carry on
 
I haven't seen much talk about the UKMET. I just checked the 0z run and the Atlantic ridge is amplified. Between Irma, that possible weak TC disturbance behind Irma and the trough over the east interacts with the ridge. With the setup, the "nose" of the ridge (on the western side) is being pushed off to the west, steering Irma into the Leeward and the most northern Windward islands.
 
------------- Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
 
Arcc said:
Did he seriously use MS Paint to do that map?
Click to expand...

Yeah he did lol.
metwannabe said:
I see chuck5 made a call to the NHC requesting more explanation as to why they decided to stay on the south side of guidance...

An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is what I mentioned to Tarheel earlier, this is actually one of those rare cases, wherein the short-medium term, a stronger tropical cyclone will actually travel further south & west than a shallow one because of the PVS to the northeast that's largely responsible for the WSW motion is most prevalent in the upper levels of the troposphere. Thus a robust hurricane with a deeper rossby penetration depth will "feel" this ULL more than a tropical storm or depression.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah he did lol.


Yeah this is what I mentioned to Tarheel earlier, this is actually one of those rare cases, wherein the short-medium term, a stronger tropical cyclone will actually travel further south & west than a shallow one because of the PVS to the northeast that's largely responsible for the WSW motion is most prevalent in the upper levels of the troposphere. Thus a robust hurricane with a deeper rossby penetration depth will "feel" this ULL more than a tropical storm or depression.
Click to expand...
So Met. Eric Blake over at the NHC may be reading your post? Lol.. on a complete side note I graduated HS with a girl by the name of Tammy Rhome, her brother happens to be Jamie Rhome, Storm Surge Specialist at the NHC.... sadly she and I have not kept up through the years stupid me, would be nice to have inside connections like that! Sorry I'll stay on topic
 
Most tropical models favor the GFS track through 132hrs. They either have it passing through, or north of the 20N/60W crosshair. The EURO, CMC, and HWRF pass it several degrees south of 20N at the same time.
 
metwannabe said:
------------- Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
Click to expand...

I saw that James Spann addressed that too:

Seeing many bogus FB posts on Hurricane Irma. In fact, what this guy is doing is pretty much a federal crime by taking official National Hurricane Center graphics and then "doctoring them up" for clicks, likes, and shares. NOBODY knows the final destination of Hurricane Irma now, and nobody will know for 4-5 days. Please, think before you share.
 
metwannabe said:
------------- Meteorologist
1 min ·
Please stop sharing these scam posts. Just like those phone calls that prey on older people and family members fears of kidnapped family members, or IRS scams, these are just scams to make money on the fears of people. We don't know where #Irma will go or how strong and won't know for 5-6 more days. Then we have 5-6 more days until it may or may not hit anyone. Stay weather aware but don't be alarmed right now. 85% of storms that form out this far don't hit the U.S.
Click to expand...

I'm lucky to have him and Jeff Crum as my locals. Both are very accessible on social media and no-BS mets. If I had to deal with the amount of garbage Brad does on facebook I wouldn't have an account...the patience he shows is quite impressive and he really knows his stuff.
 
South AL Wx said:
I saw that James Spann addressed that too:

Seeing many bogus FB posts on Hurricane Irma. In fact, what this guy is doing is pretty much a federal crime by taking official National Hurricane Center graphics and then "doctoring them up" for clicks, likes, and shares. NOBODY knows the final destination of Hurricane Irma now, and nobody will know for 4-5 days. Please, think before you share.
Click to expand...
I even think I saw TWC hyping this up on their broadcast trying to make it look like it will hit Florida. The hype needs to stop. We don't know yet. Give it a week and we will have a better idea.
 
metwannabe said:
So Met. Eric Blake over at the NHC may be reading your post? Lol.. on a complete side note I graduated HS with a girl by the name of Tammy Rhome, her brother happens to be Jamie Rhome, Storm Surge Specialist at the NHC.... sadly she and I have not kept up through the years stupid me, would be nice to have inside connections like that! Sorry I'll stay on topic
Click to expand...

Well you said it, we can only agree.
 
South AL Wx said:
I saw that James Spann addressed that too:

Seeing many bogus FB posts on Hurricane Irma. In fact, what this guy is doing is pretty much a federal crime by taking official National Hurricane Center graphics and then "doctoring them up" for clicks, likes, and shares. NOBODY knows the final destination of Hurricane Irma now, and nobody will know for 4-5 days. Please, think before you share.
Click to expand...

And it's really not only people on social media that hype up the storm. The headline on cnn.com right now is "Hurricane Irma could be the next disaster." This is not the time nor place for that headline. If you're going to put out a statement like that, at least wait until there is some model consensus and it is closer to the US. It's no wonder that meteorologists get a bad rap when people get their "forecasts" from the mainstream media.
 
Maybe it's just me but looks like the GFS is taking Irma a little more SW this run, no idea how this will effect how it ends but certainly could be an issue for the northern Islands... let's see where it goes
 
Sometimes I wonder if we'd have been better off without the existence of social media. I don't mean just in regard to weather predictions.
 
South AL Wx said:
And it's really not only people on social media that hype up the storm. The headline on cnn.com right now is "Hurricane Irma could be the next disaster." This is not the time nor place for that headline. If you're going to put out a statement like that, at least wait until there is some model consensus and it is closer to the US. It's no wonder that meteorologists get a bad rap when people get their "forecasts" from the mainstream media.
Click to expand...
It's CNN. What do you expect. They are classified as clickbait from what I have seen now as far as their article titles. I think that is just going too far.
GaWx said:
Sometimes I wonder if we'd have been better off without the existence of social media. I don't mean just in regard to weather predictions.
Click to expand...
I agree to some extent. Social media, which does spread info faster, is a good and a bad. The bad being it spreads irresponsible info from people faster because it looks far more entertaining or drastic than the realistic and well thought out info of others. People want crazy quite a bit of the time to share, so that's why we have this hype chaos.

Back on topic with Irma, yes, the GFS is a bit more west this run and slightly weaker. Also it may be premature, but I think the trough may dig a bit deeper this run, so maybe OTS or a hook into the NE. Let's just see where it ends up later this run.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's CNN. What do you expect. They are classified as clickbait from what I have seen now as far as their article titles. I think that is just going too far.

I agree to some extent. Social media, which does spread info faster, is a good and a bad. The bad being it spreads irresponsible info from people faster because it looks far more entertaining or drastic than the realistic and well thought out info of others. People want crazy quite a bit of the time to share, so that's why we have this hype chaos.

Back on topic with Irma, yes, the GFS is a bit more west this run and slightly weaker. Also it may be premature, but I think the trough may dig a bit deeper this run, so maybe OTS or a hook into the NE. Let's just see where it ends up later this run.
Click to expand...
Or it could cutoff again which would be another option (the least desirable)
 
Irma's eye is attempting to clear out again, wouldn't be surprised to see it reintensify again potentially into an annular hurricane as early as later today given the environment it's currently embedded in
 
Well, this is pretty much a giving. OTS it is lol.
 
Eastern Trough is lifting out faster on 12z GFS vs 6z hr. 162

EDIT: This run will be further west than 6z, not sure about a US hit yet though.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_29.png
If this thing dont cut the next 2 frames then watch out.
 
That dam high tho! It takes up the whole Atlantic Ocean!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top