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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_44.png

12z
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_45.png

06z

If you Compare 12z and 06z the GFS have made a major shift from showing one to two in FL to showing plenty in FL 12z run and also more in the Carolinas This 12z run compared to 06z.
 
Shawn said:
GFS is not very smart with that run. Bothers me seeing it so close to the SC coast with no real place to go with the ridge building overtop... On to the Euro.

I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
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You and me both!


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Shawn said:
GFS is not very smart with that run. Bothers me seeing it so close to the SC coast with no real place to go with the ridge building overtop... On to the Euro.

I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
Click to expand...

If the one ridge center is far enough away to the north in the NE US and there is also a Bermuda high to the east imparting a steering current from south to north (like the 12Z GFS shows), a continued slow northward track toward the NE US isn't unusual based on past actual hurricane tracks. Hurricanes have a tendency for some poleward motion in the absence of strong steering currents, regardless.
 
The 12Z Euro is starting out a hair north of its 0Z run and slightly NW of the 12Z GFS as of hour 72.
 
Storm5 said:
The gefs florida camp picked up many members that run.

The gefs is slowly trending towards the eps

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I actually could see an Andrew/Early Katrina like track with this one. Not hit location, but movement. WNW to NW as the trough tugs on it, then west to possibly WSW into FL as the Ridge builds back in.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Euro will most likely be OTS this Run!!
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I think it is early in the run to call that, but with a slightly further north track vs 0Z Euro and a slightly weaker Bermuda ridge than the 0Z Euro had, it not coming into the SE US on this Euro run wouldn't surprise me. Let's see how this evolves.
 
Euro also initialized the system incorrectly again strength wise..... where's Eric he's discussed this before. I almost wonder if the Euro initializing too weak allows the more northerly track initially due to it feeling less influence from the ULL that would help drive it SW
 
metwannabe said:
Euro also initialized the system incorrectly again strength wise..... where's Eric he's discussed this before. I almost wonder if the Euro initializing too weak allows the more northerly track initially due to it feeling less influence from the ULL that would help drive it SW
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Probably in class lol he is in shool you know haha



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What an education!
So much I'd like to pipe in, but it would only dilute the discussion ... ;)
Thanks, Folks!
Phil
 
Ridge building in this run . One thing to keep in mind, like in winter troughs tend to verfi weaker vs whats showing on the models

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Storm5 said:
Ridge building in this run . One thing to keep in mind, like in winter troughs tend to verfi weaker vs whats showing on the models

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Truth! Trough already lifting and that ridge is building
 
pcbjr said:
Ahhh - swirling chicken feathers ...
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Side bar: On the farm we used to say "don't count your juvenile poultry before the process of incubation is thoroughly materialized". Now back to regular programming
 
metwannabe said:
Side bar: On the farm we used to say "don't count your juvenile poultry before the process of incubation is thoroughly materialized". Now back to regular programming
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What we used to say on our S GA farm, and still do say, would cause me to be banned if I repeated it here ... (and it has to do with weather, btw ...) ... :p
 
This could stay off the eSt coast this run as there is a door opening to do so

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I expect to see a pretty strong sprawling surface high to become temporarily established over the NE US within a few frames as the Canadian high and the SE high merge. That's not typically an OTS setup. This could, like was the case for the 12Z GFS, head on up toward the NE US or MidAtlantic.
 
Ridge is actually stronger this run at 192 vs the 00z run

12z

00z
ffec89de5e88961a81f57053ac9a5748.jpg
ff1ecc13028914e930e1a87b57d9298b.jpg


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