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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Looks like this cycle of RI has stopped. Irma should maintain its strength for probably the next day or two and not strengthen much, or weaken, but if RI kicks up again, we will probably see a very strong major hurricane. If you follow the NHC forecast, I think the strength may be close to what is being predicted, but maybe sooner. Just have to watch as it grows into a larger system. Larger systems mean longer growth times and longer periods between cycles, at least that is what I think.
11LP.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like this cycle of RI has stopped. Irma should maintain its strength for probably the next day or two and not strengthen much, or weaken, but if RI kicks up again, we will probably see a very strong major hurricane. If you follow the NHC forecast, I think the strength may be close to what is being predicted, but maybe sooner. Just have to watch as it grows into a larger system. Larger systems mean longer growth times and longer periods between cycles, at least that is what I think.
11LP.GIF
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That is the big take away from me, this has a chance to get very large.
 
Arcc said:
That is the big take away from me, this has a chance to get very large.
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It looks very tiny at the moment, and looks a little less well organized. Probably just temporary or an eyewall replacement cycle, but interested to see how it looks in the morning!
 
I made this graphic of the possible track of Irma. This is not a forecast, just an idea. My timing is based from the NHC. I'm confident enough to say that Irma has a higher chance at effecting land vs staying out open water. Irma will start gaining latitude as it approaches the islands and on forward.
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Brent said:
GFS Is about 2 degrees SW of the 18z at 138 hours
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Yeah there's a good reason the NHC decided to disregard its further NE solutions and stay on the southwestern side of the NWP envelope... It's one of the few things you can almost always hang your hat on in the eastern Atlantic, the GFS will end up recurving a TC too quickly OTS
 
Animation over the past 6 runs via GFS. The 0z run from today is about 2 deg south vs it's 18z run
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Right over Virginia Beach at 234 hours 930 mb

We have agreement on all 3 globals of a US landfall on September 10th
 
Brent said:
The GFS is trending towards the Euro

Color me shocked at this turn of events :p
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Slowly, but surely most of us or all of us knew/suspected it was likely coming. This just reminds me that we have more wild model craziness to come.
 
A Bastardi Backyard Buzzsaw speacil on the 0z gfs. He'll be in rare form tommorrow talking Carol , Edna history etc.
 
Well. This isn't good.

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^^ To go with that image above. Eastville only has a population of 168 as of 2016.
Here's a photo that Google showed. I hope they have the news or something. Just in case.
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Irma appears to be becoming increasingly annular. Starting to notice a lot of the banding adjacent to the CDO is disappearing and its becoming very CDO dominant. The background environment where Irma is embedded within is conducive to the formation of annular hurricanes, with light upper level easterly shear, marginal SSTs (& a weak gradient in SSTs along its immediate path, and Irma already underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. The importance of Irma becoming annular (if it does so) is that it becomes less susceptible to large intensity fluctuations and can maintain itself w/o an EWRC for a considerable amount of time while being more capable of fending off upper level wind shear, dry air, etc.

The HWRF even at 24 hours shows an absolutely classic annular hurricane (although the eye may still be smaller than your stereotypical annular by then)
hwrf_satIR_11L_5.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can see especially near the end of these frames, Irma has lost a lot of outer banding. Definitely a classic vortcane atm.
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This basically means no strong intensification but no weakening for a while correct? Until it hits the warmer waters..?
 
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