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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Brent said:
Yeah, that map definitely has been raising my interest the last day or two and how consistent it's been too, also the strongest GFS ensemble members are huge hurricanes in the same area off FL-SC

Long way to go but the UKMET is with the Euro on the more threatening track, and the GFS 2-3 days ago had some runs not even showing a storm...

That trough progged late next week better be legit or this one will be problematic I bet
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Yeah the GFS was second only to the CMC as they battled for worst place on Harvey.
 
ForsythSnow said:
GFS already cranking a strong low. Let's start the party. Where shall it go? Let's see in about 20 minutes.
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I usually don't like to jump the gun before a model run finishes, but I wouldn't be surprised if this run brings Irma closer to the East Coast compared to 18z.

EDIT: My reasoning is because of the 500mb maps btw.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah the GFS was second only to the CMC as they battled for worst place on Harvey.
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ah yes I still remember when the GFS/CMC took Harvey into Mexico

Just slightly off

The Euro wasn't perfect but at least it was in the right area
 
BTW, in case anyone was curious, this weathernerds.org site has the sickest GOES 16 data. You can for example take a look at anywhere in the Atlantic, box out any region of interest, run as many frames as you want and measure distances, etc.
Plus their models page is pretty nice...
http://www.weathernerds.org

GOES16_1km_ir_201708310330_10.50_24.50_-44.25_-21.25_ir1_weathernerds.gif
 
0z GFS sure is deeping that trough over the east. With a trough like that, Irma will be OTS on this run.

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GFS 893mb

Yeah okay That'd be unheard of that far north and a top 5 pressure ever in the Atlantic :rolleyes:
 
Yeah the GFS has convective feedback issues wherein its depiction of very strong tropical cyclones is usually very overdone. I don't buy a sub 900mb pressure in the Atlantic aside from the NW Caribbean and loop current in the SE GOM where it's essentially an all you can eat buffet of tropical cyclone heat potential, otherwise almost certainly not happening...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the GFS has convective feedback issues wherein its depiction of very strong tropical cyclones is usually very overdone. I don't buy a sub 900mb pressure in the Atlantic aside from the NW Caribbean and loop current in the SE GOM where it's essentially an all you can eat buffet of tropical cyclone heat potential, otherwise almost certainly not happening...
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A weaker system is more likely to stay south longer correct?
 
Per records from 1851 through 2017, I found 51 TC's that moved between 14N and 20N when crossing 30W. Out of these 51, 6 (12%) hit the CONUS (5 of these 6 between 14N and 15N with the other being between 15N and 16N), 14 (27%) dissipated over open water, and 31 (61%) recurved east of the CONUS
 
Euro has a major hurricane just southeast of Puerto Rico at 168. GFS is way north of PR

Better trough digging over the SE

and the Gulf storm is back in the Northern Gulf

Over Hispanola at 192, Euro is south of its previous runs

Gulf storm is moving SE over the Gulf with a large cutoff low over the SE
 
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240 hours over Central Cuba and appears to be Gulf bound with a ridge over Florida and points north

Well that's a new idea
 
Uh oh. Ridge Builds in over the East coast and Irma says "hey texas, see you soon".. well hopefully not.. but either way.. bad news.

system is developed enough to not get totally torn apart by land interaction in all like-hood.
 
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