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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The gfs is either going to leave it behind or hook it into the NE

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SD said:
The h5 pattern with the cut off is a nod to the euro

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yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
 
" I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach."
From Eric Blake regarding their forecast philosophy to stay on the southwestern edge of the NWP guidance envelope...
 
Webberweather53 said:
yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
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Webb - That is soooo true, and so well said ... ;)
 
ForsythSnow said:
If this doesn't start curving soon, here comes your rain SD.:confused:
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Nah it's going to get channeled between the atlantic ridge and cutoff looks like a NE hit. I can't see the trough missing it and nothing to bring it west

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Guys (and ladies) the track of Irma will be off after at least day 3 or 4. Typhoon Sanvu will influence the track of Irma and we won't start to see the effects of that till typhoon Sanvu completes it's recurvature which should occur within 3-4 days. Things going on downstream effects what's going on upstream. As Webber said, it's known as the "Rossby Wave Train".

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Webberweather53 said:
yep the westerlies are usually not deep enough at this time of the year to support a full scale trough like that for long, if it digs too deep, a cut-off is bound to show up. Still a ways to go however...
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Agreed. The weakening of the western ridge, retreating of the jet to the US/Can border, cutoff low and potential westward expanding atlantic ridge opens the door for a US hit

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Bye bye Boston. :eek:
gfs_mslp_wind_neus_39.png
 
SD said:
Nah it's going to get channeled between the atlantic ridge and cutoff looks like a NE hit. I can't see the trough missing it and nothing to bring it west

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Congrats Delmarva!
 
That run had all the crazies. Big PRE in the NE, ET transition and expanding wind field

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Storm5 said:
The hype train has left ...
e2427f1f96bccc40d417343661e0413d.jpg


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Lol just wait a few days and I bet the hype will be extreme. Also, his statement seems to be as if Harvey never happened. It would be nearly impossible to supply an Island with hurricane relief supplies when we have Harvey's damage to deal with.
 
Bad thing is if Irma make a direct hit on the US as major, how much help would that area get from the National Guards, when there in such need from Harvey in Texas. It would not be good if another hurricane disaster happened. People can only take so much. Thats the whole part about living in the southeast sooner or later our luck runs out.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol just wait a few days and I bet the hype will be extreme. Also, his statement seems to be as if Harvey never happened. It would be nearly impossible to supply an Island with hurricane relief supplies when we have Harvey's damage to deal with.
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And yet some idiot will follow him off the cliff


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I'll like to add that, what some of the things people say, (not necessarily on here) it makes it seem like they want a direct hit. We, as weather forecasters, meteorologists, weather enthusiast, do not choose of what happens. We discuss of what could become reality, no matter what the outcome will be. People don't need to get their underwear in a knot when we say things that seem like we want a direct hit. It's not that we want a direct hit, we're speaking of what could become reality.

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