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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
No track is likely or unlikely at this point . We dont even know how strong the trough will be , the ridge placement in the Atlantic ( see the gfs and euro , worlds apart)

Gonna be days before we can rule out track directions

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True dat. We should know if it's OTS by the weekend.


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Storm5 said:
That eps run was a NE shift . Remember the gefs favors OTS at the moment . So out to sea or staying just offshore has just as much a chance as a hit at the moment

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We have 5, 7, 10 or so days to go and likely it will change somewhat again and again (that is not a revelation from God, but just a Fla boy's observational history); if you want to keep up with official track changes over time, use this (also located in Wiki) -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Also, on a somewhat unrelated point, but still germane, here's another from Wiki with a plethora of info at your fingertips -
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
 
pcbjr said:
We have 5, 7, 10 or so days to go and likely it will change somewhat again and again (that is not a revelation from God, but just a Fla boy's observational history)
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The earliest US hit date shown on the 12Z EPS is a week from Sat, or 9 days away. So, indeed, the runs will likely jump around a bit for the next few days.
 
GaWx said:
The earliest US hit date shown on the 12Z EPS is a week from Sat, or 9 days away. So, indeed, the runs will likely jump around a bit for the next few days.
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Yep. Still a long way to go on this one. It will be all over the place for the time being.
 
Oh man. 140 mph at the end now...

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
 
Just for observational purposes, I have put the GFS ENS track of Irma over the Euro ENS. You can see where the difference starts occuring. (Hopefully I overlaid the GFS correctly, you get the idea)
f545d4d8e1afe6db9ef8dc3e658449fa.jpg


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ForsythSnow said:
Oh man. 140 mph at the end now...

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
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How does one say "Oh S..." without getting properly banned ... :confused:
 
WeatherWatch said:
Just for observational purposes, I have put the GFS ENS track of Irma over the Euro ENS. You can see where the difference starts occuring. (Hopefully I overlaid the GFS correctly, you get the idea)
f545d4d8e1afe6db9ef8dc3e658449fa.jpg


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Except that map seems quite deceiving due to scale. I think stacking the two would have been a better comparison.
 
Agree with the long range comments, way too far that's why I say take it about 3-5 days at a time.... models diverge so much early on that by the weekend we will know if the islands are in line or will be spared which will tell us a lot about the days beyond that.
 
From Allan Huffman twitter.... you can see where the Euro and all other models start to diverge
DIlZtdUVoAEXt5g.jpg:large
 
And per usual NHC going with the Euro, reading this is concerning..
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
If Euro is right **if** that trof would lead this to a central or east gom hit.
 
I am with the NHC forecaster / Euro / EPS idea. At least this far out in regards to handling 500mb.
 
^^^^IF Tuesday night has a major hurricane hitting the northern Islands.....oh boy and on no
 
metwannabe said:
And per usual NHC going with the Euro, reading this is concerning..
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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They are the pros but again just because a few of the strongest members agree with the op , i dont get how they lean that direction at the moment

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Shawn said:
I am with the NHC forecaster / Euro / EPS idea. At least this far out in regards to handling 500mb.
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But they are putting the eggs in a basket of a few southern ensemble members . I dont get how a few members gives weight to the euro ops idea when 60 percent of the ensembles are NW of the OP

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Storm5 said:
They are the pros but again just because a few of the strongest members agree with the op , i dont get how they lean that direction at the moment

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Maybe they're going with the Euro cause of it's consistency as well, along with it's better 500mb handling.

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In so many ways, watching these models and reading comments (which is a very delightful thing to do, and I thank you all), reminds me of picking a jury - you just don't know what you have until 6 are in the box, and then and only then can you watch facial expressions as the evidence comes in and get a good read on where it's all going ... right now, we're still in voir dire stage ...
 
pcbjr said:
In so many ways, watching these models and reading comments (which is a very delightful thing to do, and I thank you all), reminds me of picking a jury - you just don't know what you have until 6 are in the box, and then and only then can you watch facial expressions as the evidence comes in and get a good read on where it's all going ...
Click to expand...
I was selected to sit on a jury for a rape case. It was an amazing experiece

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Storm5 said:
But they are putting the eggs in a basket of a few southern ensemble members . I dont get how a few members gives weight to the euro ops idea when 60 percent of the ensembles are NW of the OP

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The GFS has a notorious poleward bias in this part of the Atlantic and even though it's been analyzing the intensity correctly (@ least more so than the Euro) it's been verifying way too north even in the short term. NCEP's utilization of "vortex bogusing" to allow the GFS model to properly initialize Irma's intensity is advantageous in that it gets somewhat close to the intensity (as close as it can w/ its resolution), however they insert a "fake" idealistic, vortex into the model that can differ appreciably from reality so caution should be urged here. It also should be noted that the HWRF (which also tends to have a large poleward bias with east Atlantic TCs) is actually on the southwestern most portion of the NWP guidance envelope... Regardless, once we get recon data assimilated into the models and as this grows in size once it closes in on the Lesser Antilles, the global models will have an easier time resolving it & thus forecast confidence will increase. (the increase in size will receive contributions from the increasing upper level moisture content, lowering background MSLP, and potential for more eyewall replacement cycles that usually result in a broadening of the TC's wind and pressure field). The NHC is also using experience with these situations in that the intensity of the subtropical ridge is often underestimated (as we saw during Hurricane Ike (of course improvements have been made since) & how the storm has verified so far against the guidance, which for the most part has been well south & stronger than advertised...
 
pcbjr said:
So glad to hear that - it should be - it's the foundation of our society in so many ways ... ;)
Now - on to weather ... :cool:
Click to expand...

What's the best way to get out of it. As an independent contractor I would take a huge hit in income should I be selected in the future.


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Webberweather53 said:
The GFS has a notorious poleward bias in this part of the Atlantic and even though it's been analyzing the intensity correctly (@ least more so than the Euro) it's been verifying way too north even in the short term. NCEP's utilization of "vortex bogusing" to allow the GFS model to properly initialize Irma's intensity is advantageous in that it gets somewhat close to the intensity (as close as it can w/ its resolution), however they insert a "fake" idealistic, vortex into the model that can differ appreciably from reality so caution should be urged here. It also should be noted that the HWRF (which also tends to have a large poleward bias with east Atlantic TCs) is actually on the southwestern most portion of the NWP guidance envelope... Regardless, once we get recon data assimilated into the models and as this grows in size once it closes in on the Lesser Antilles, the global models will have an easier time resolving it & thus forecast confidence will increase. (the increase in size will receive contributions from the increasing upper level moisture content, lowering background MSLP, and potential for more eyewall replacement cycles that usually result in a broadening of the TC's wind and pressure field). The NHC is also using experience with these situations in that the intensity of the subtropical ridge is often underestimated (as we saw during Hurricane Ike (of course improvements have been made since) & how the storm has verified so far against the guidance, which for the most part has been well south & stronger than advertised...
Click to expand...
I remember a while back you talkimg about the atlantic risge and models often under forecasting the strength. If thats the case a euro solution is for sure possible. Good point about them using past history ans expsrience .

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Webberweather53 said:
The GFS has a notorious poleward bias in this part of the Atlantic and even though it's been analyzing the intensity correctly (@ least more so than the Euro) it's been verifying way too north even in the short term. NCEP's utilization of "vortex bogusing" to allow the GFS model to properly initialize Irma's intensity is advantageous in that it gets somewhat close to the intensity (as close as it can w/ its resolution), however they insert a "fake" idealistic, vortex into the model that can differ appreciably from reality so caution should be urged here. It also should be noted that the HWRF (which also tends to have a large poleward bias with east Atlantic TCs) is actually on the southwestern most portion of the NWP guidance envelope... Regardless, once we get recon data assimilated into the models and as this grows in size once it closes in on the Lesser Antilles, the global models will have an easier time resolving it & thus forecast confidence will increase. (the increase in size will receive contributions from the increasing upper level moisture content, lowering background MSLP, and potential for more eyewall replacement cycles that usually result in a broadening of the TC's wind and pressure field). The NHC is also using experience with these situations in that the intensity of the subtropical ridge is often underestimated (as we saw during Hurricane Ike (of course improvements have been made since) & how the storm has verified so far against the guidance, which for the most part has been well south & stronger than advertised...
Click to expand...
Man you beat me to it but you said it far more eloquently and intelligently than I ever could

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Storm5 said:
But they are putting the eggs in a basket of a few southern ensemble members . I dont get how a few members gives weight to the euro ops idea when 60 percent of the ensembles are NW of the OP

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I don't see an issue through d5 you have the cmc and it's ensembles along with the euro and eps versus the gfs suit. I'll take the former any day. Regardless of where the storm is at d5 the forecast challenge and divergence occurs post d5 and how the continental pattern sets up. You really start to get into s myriad of possibilities once this is in or just north of the islands and you could take and pull a book of analogs and have support for them all.

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The euro is just usually a superior model so I really can't blame them

I still remember when it was alone having Joaquin stay out to sea while the gfs and its models slammed the us for days...

What's weird here is it being the doomier model that's unusual

I wouldn't be surprised if it goes ots either honestly but it's just the gfs usually doesn't win these
 
Eric explained it much more detailed than I would have. I agree with the NHC/Euro idea because the ridge is likely stronger than what the GFS thinks at this range.. to sum it up.
 
When I said we were in trouble earlier today I wasn't just trying to be cute. obviously the odds almost always favor an out to sea track given the current position. However once you account for the wsw then west track you get into a much more favorable area for a US strike. On top of that you have a trough lifting out of the eastern us and not beating down the atlantic ridge. This would at minimum favor something butt clinching close to the eastern sea board and Bahamas. In an extreme scenario you get the trough fracture and absorbing of the gulf disturbance like the Euro which would further pump heights off the EC and allow the system to have a potential double Florida landfall or even a south of Fl into the central gulf.

I personally think the pattern off of the EC is too stout to write this off as an out to sea solution l. Sure, it could hook NE and go harmlessly into the atlantic but I think attention needs to be paid when at d11 or so


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The euro's downfall here is how it's not initializing the vortex properly (way too weak). Intensity errors feedback onto the track and mid latitude steering flow because as i mentioned earlier as a storm strengthens, it's rossby penetration depth becomes deeper, with the cyclonic circulation extending deeper in the column and the level of non divergence (where the circulation goes from cyclonic to anticyclonic) and thus it's steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere. A stronger storm produces more heating that is more apt to push TUTTs out of the way and pump the heights particularly in the wake of the storm because the TUTTs that feed on barocolinicity lose the gradients in temperature that reinforce their concomitant upper level winds (& wind shear that's imparted on TCs). Of course a stronger storm also exhibits more beta drift that also influences the track increasingly northwestward to an extent.
 
whatalife said:
What's the best way to get out of it. As an independent contractor I would take a huge hit in income should I be selected in the future.


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Just say you hate people! When they ask you the first question! :)
 
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