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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Arcc said:
It's almost like we've switched back to pre-2007.
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Well we had a hurricane less US streak in the early 2000s and then 2003/2004/2005 happened

So who knows. We've come close the last 2 years with Joaquin and Matthew and now with Harvey actually doing it, could be a new chapter
 
GFS going with a major fish hurricane again, only threatening Bermuda really

Very impressive pressures, 204 hours 914 mb
 
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_41.png
 
I'm keeping odds of about 15% of hitting some part of the Conus since no more than that percentage has hit the US. So, 85% chance of recurve e of the US, dissipation, or hitting MX or Central America with most of that recurve. The only reason I don't have it in the 5%-10% range is the projected WSW bend.
 
Once you get rid of these insane pressures and tone it down to something realistic, a more southern pass could be much more likely. Trough is moving out quicker and quicker it seems
 
Also remember that the GFS also has an east by us when it comes to dealing with troughs and ridges. Just like the euro has a west by us with the same set up
 
I noticed the ridging in the Central Atlantic was breaking down at the same time as the trough was retreating back into SE Canada. Was that a result of the trough itself or was it just a coincidence? After the trough retreats, the ridging rebuilds back in behind Irma.

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Quite the battle setting up between the euro and gfs over the hemispheric h5 pattern and that has significant impacts on the future track. The euro/eps are much farther SW with the atlantic ridge which allows the w to wsw motion to continue to the islands.

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Brent said:
Major hurricane in 4 days forecast already and they say that could be conservative :eek:
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Yep. She's up to 65 too, 999mb.

INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
 
Arcc said:
Two things,

One, those are massive hurricanes area wise.

Two, how many of them go off the scale pressure wise....
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Yeah, that map definitely has been raising my interest the last day or two and how consistent it's been too, also the strongest GFS ensemble members are huge hurricanes in the same area off FL-SC

Long way to go but the UKMET is with the Euro on the more threatening track, and the GFS 2-3 days ago had some runs not even showing a storm...

That trough progged late next week better be legit or this one will be problematic I bet
 
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