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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The HWRF has it going just east of the spine of Florida all the way up to Georgia and maintaining a pretty significant strength that would be nuts
 
EPS: (the euro has spoken, and expect the worst case for FL)
eps_cyclone_atlantic_21.png
 
Looks like the Carolina coasts really lucked out with this one.
 
Shawn said:
Looks like the Carolina coasts really lucked out with this one.
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ATM, things look better for us here to in the central midlands. Esp. if it takes that more westerly track the Euro is depicting. The NHC has their track a little further to the right, as you well know. Do you think Euro is a bit too far west? Also, i'm not sure about it being that close to the northern Cuba coastline. I know the Ukie agreest to a certain extent though. I know some of the other guidance of 0z came in a little more eastward. I'm not sure the NHC will shift the track at 5 AM. Although it's hard to bet against the ESP as well, when it's showing what it is as of now.
 
Indeed, that is a 75 mile adjustment westward for the 0Z EPS vs the 12Z EPS mean along with very strong agreement (almost all members nearly identical). The mean now goes just inland of the west coast of the FL pen. Poor Phil won't like this at all but we can hope for the best for him. Regardless, I'm not going to lie and say I'm not relieved that the possibility of utter devastation in my area is decreasing rapidly. Only 3 of 50 0Z EPS members have a path coming off of FL and then coming back into GA.
 
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DLI4SCwx said:
ATM, things look better for us here to in the central midlands. Esp. if it takes that more westerly track the Euro is depicting. The NHC has their track a little further to the right, as you well know. Do you think Euro is a bit too far west? Also, i'm not sure about it being that close to the northern Cuba coastline. I know the Ukie agreest to a certain extent though. I know some of the other guidance of 0z came in a little more eastward. I'm not sure the NHC will shift the track at 5 AM. Although it's hard to bet against the ESP as well, when it's showing what it is as of now.
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I believe the Euro and the EPS because it has been the best model with less forecast errors with Irma's track so far and it's obviously handling 500mb better.
 
Shawn said:
I believe the Euro and the EPS because it has been the best model with less forecast errors with Irma's track so far and it's obviously handling 500mb better.
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The 0Z EPS actually suggests that IF there is going to be another shift for the Euro op, it would probably be westward again since the 0Z Euro op is a little to the east of the 0Z EPS mean.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS actually suggests that IF there is going to be another shift for the Euro op, it would probably be westward again.
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Even a chance to get into the Eastern Gulf and go for the panhandle.. which sure would be something considering certain mets told the public it wouldn't many days ago.
 
Since the 00z GEFS had a slight east shift, do you believe the NHC will play the middle ground between that and the EPS and the OP? So still, essentially a Miami hit or just slightly to the west?
 
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