Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[stormcentral]

Below 900MB approaching S FL

 

[Jackstraw]

Not buying a pressure level that low with a wind field like that. No way.

 

[stormcentral]

883MB heading for S FL HMON 00Z

 

[stormcentral]

 

[Storm5]

Thanks, I was talking about the 00z ukmet I wanted to see if it shifted east!!

Lol oh ok

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[Meteorologist1999]

HMON, Shifted east a little every so slightly!!

 

[Storm5]

00z GEFS with a slight east shift but same general idea.

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[Storm5]

The wobbles will continue with the OPs and ensembles east and west but idea hasn't changed. No significant changes from the 00z runs so far. Not staying up for the Euro

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[Meteorologist1999]

00z GEFS with a slight east shift but same general idea.

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Yes you have more South Carolina Members right?

 

[Brick Tamland]

I know a couple of folks in FL that are not evacuating that live in Orlando. If the hurricane is going right up the middlle of the state, is going to be a cat 4 when it hits, and is that large, it doesn't matter if you are that far inland. It's going to do a lot more damage than it did here when Fran came through, and that was scary enough.

 

[Brick Tamland]

00z GEFS with a slight east shift but same general idea.

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If it somehow misses FL it's going to be another long week of tracking this thing to GA or SC.

 

[Storm5]

Yes you have more South Carolina Members right?

A few more vs the previous run yes

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[Storm5]

Here is a closer look

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[stormcentral]

HWRF 00Z Straight up FL peninsula

 

[$alt]

GEFS says "not so fast, South Carolina coast."

This thing is annoying. Both ensemble paths mean a big difference for FL and SC/GA.

 

[accu35]

HWRF 00Z Straight up FL peninsula

little west

 

[Meteorologist1999]

GEFS says "not so fast, South Carolina coast."

This thing is annoying. Both ensemble paths mean a big difference for FL and SC/GA.

If Euro shifts east a little we will have a long day tomorrow!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

The back and forth is annoying. As soon as it looks like there is a consensus today, now the models want to go back east some. It's like they can't handle big events anymore. I'm used to them being awful when it comes to winter storms around here.

 

[malak05]

I wouldn't say we are seeing huge jumps outside of the wonky NAM these wobbles are probably more of just fine details then on-going shift trends

 

[$alt]

I wouldn't say we are seeing huge jumps outside of the wonky NAM these wobbles are probably more of just fine details then on-going shift trends

The problem from the 00z GFS (slight but was there) and it's Ensemble run is that it puts areas like Charleston in a lot worse of a spot storm surge wise, etc.. and help Florida out. There's just enough of a split camp to cause more uncertainty.