accu35
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- Jan 5, 2017
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it does then a west wobble lol
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
- Status
0z, 06z and 12z thru 102
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BHS1975
Member
Are there any good examples of the gfs out performing the euro on tracking?
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Look at the NE feature at 0z and now at 12z
0z
12z
0z
12z
^^^Biggest difference I see is Jose further south... also looks like 12z splitting the difference between 0z and 06z with Irma
Brent
Member
looks like she might try to stay east of FL barely on the GFS?
BHS1975
Member
How could it not go ots with that gaping hole in the ridge?
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Yeah @120 it certainly is..... could this thing still go ots and miss the US, wow what a blessing that would be
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah 12z is east of 06z for sure now. Really curious if the ridge noses back in or if this thing can escape
I think the problem is the ridge building in behind the trough and bridging to the atlantic ridge closing that hole..[/QUOTE]
Brent
Member
this run like rakes the entire FL coast with the western eyewall of a Cat 4+
Cary_Snow95
Member
And IF this occurs that ridge is building back over the top very problematic
Cary_Snow95
Member
This isn't going OTS. Ridge is building in. Might be Carolina bound
lagging trough and an earlier fracture in the ridge means more N component to the movement sooner. The problem then becomes either a slow trek up the eastern seaboard or an acceleration as it pinwheels in the trough. Both solutions bring their own suck
WeatherWatch
Member
Nah, no OTS, it's looking like Irma will make landfall over GA/SC and then push of to the WNW or NW. Just a guess.
Brent
Member
even in the western eyewall still Cat 5 gusts on the FL coast this run
Flo
Member
So you think it skirts up the Florida coast and goes inland in GA/SC?
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